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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,690 of 84,120 nationally

Elm Park Eviction Risk: Elevated , Worcester

Tract 25027731601 · Worcester County, MA · pop 4,484 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

Census tract 25027731601 runs through the Elm Park area of Worcester. With 4,484 residents, it scores 7.2/10 for landlords. It lands near the 97th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

About 50% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,194 monthly, set against $38,918 in average yearly household income, roughly 37% of income at the averages. About 89% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 45% Stable renters 45% Owners 10%
Tract context
Occupied units2,092
Renter share89.1%
SVI overall0.76
Poverty rate36.3%
Median income$38,918

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Elm Park
Very Low
Within parent city
84 th percentile
Rank, 84th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 46 tracts In Worcester
High
Within county
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 191 tracts In Worcester County
Very High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#63 of 1,613 tracts In Massachusetts
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Worcester and the region

Centroid at 42.2681, -71.8095 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elm Park scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.9
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
36.3% poverty · this tract
9.1
Supply constraint
$1,194 rent vs county FMR
1.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Worcester
6.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Worcester
7.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Worcester
7.0

How Elm Park compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elm Park risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.86.8This tracttract 731601Worcester: 6.46.4Worcesterparent cityCounty: 3.63.6Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 76

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elm Park. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elm Park

What moves this score most is economic stress at 9.1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Worcester eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Worcester County average of 6.0 and above the Massachusetts statewide average of 5.9. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 76th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 17.2% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 25027731601

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25027731601?

Census tract 25027731601 in the Elm Park neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 25027731601?

Median gross rent is $1,194/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 25027731601?

36.3% of residents in tract 25027731601 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,484.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 25027731601?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 76th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 83th, household 23th, minority 59th, housing 85th.
Q5

Is tract 25027731601 considered part of Elm Park?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25027731601 fall within Elm Park (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 25027731601 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 25027731601 compare to Worcester overall?

Tract 25027731601 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Worcester at 6.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Worcester eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Worcester

Top eight tracts in Worcester ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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