Within parent city
60
th percentile
Elevated
Census Tract · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
South St. Paul Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27037060202 · Dakota County, MN · pop 3,536
27037060202 is a census tract in South St. Paul, MN. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,536 residents. Severe burden reaches 42%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 16%
Owners 63%
Tract context
Occupied units1,386
Renter share36.1%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate10.3%
Median income$87,558
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
72
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
National
59
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across South St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9055, -93.0508 · click any tract to drill in
Why South St. Paul scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South St. Paul
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
10.3% poverty · this tract
2.6
Supply constraint
$1,039 rent vs county FMR
1.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.6
How South St. Paul compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 47%Socioeconomic
- 76%Household composition
- 32%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 78Total filings over 5 yrs
- 3.27%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.1%Peak (2009)
- 9Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 68% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 9.9%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.5%Food insecurity
- 9.1%SNAP enrollment
- 7.5%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 15.5%Frequent mental distress
- 30.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South St. Paul
The clearest offset is supply constraint at 1.2/10. Against Dakota County at 45.6%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.6/10.
Court records carry 78 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Average gross rent is $1,039, 13% below the South St. Paul average. Against the Dakota County average of 4.2, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.7 points.
Filings peaked in 2009 at 7.1% of renter households. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 3.3% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.5/10. Against average income of $87,558, annual rent is just 14%.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. 36% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 27037060202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27037060202?
Census tract 27037060202 in South St. Paul scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27037060202?
Median gross rent is $1,039/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27037060202?
10.3% of residents in tract 27037060202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,536.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27037060202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 47th, household 76th, minority 32th, housing 71th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27037060202?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 78 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 27037060202 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.27% of renter households, peaking at 7.1% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 27037060202 struggle to pay rent?
About 9.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27037060202 compare to South St. Paul overall?
Tract 27037060202 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of South St. Paul at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 27037060202 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South St. Paul
Top eight tracts in South St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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