Within parent city
40
th percentile
Moderate
Census Tract · Ranked #39,308 of 84,120 nationally
South St. Paul Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27037060402 · Dakota County, MN · pop 3,572
Tract 27037060402 sits in South St. Paul, MN, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.6/10. Population here is 3,572. Cost burden runs 95% here against 45.6% across Dakota County.
Risk score
4.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,348
Renter share17.0%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$81,705
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
62
th percentile
Elevated
National
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across South St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.8711, -93.0263 · click any tract to drill in
Why South St. Paul scores 4.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South St. Paul
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,272 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.6
How South St. Paul compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 80
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 96%Household composition
- 56%Racial/ethnic minority
- 71%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 86Total filings over 5 yrs
- 6.39%Avg annual filing rate
- 6.7%Peak (2010)
- 15Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.1%Housing insecurity
- 7.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 15.2%Food insecurity
- 10.6%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 11.8%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 30.5%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South St. Paul
Severe burden reaches 28%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. The main counterweight is economic stress at 1.3/10.
Running hot, local political climate reads 7.5/10. Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.5/10. Court records carry 86 eviction filings across 5 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2010 at 6.7% of renter households. In a typical year about 6.4% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 53rd percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. Only 17% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.2/10.
Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured. Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap.
It tracks the Dakota County average of 4.2 closely.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 27037060402
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27037060402?
Census tract 27037060402 in South St. Paul scores 4.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27037060402?
Median gross rent is $1,272/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 95% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27037060402?
5.3% of residents in tract 27037060402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,572.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27037060402?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 96th, minority 56th, housing 71th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27037060402?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 86 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 27037060402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.39% of renter households, peaking at 6.7% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 27037060402 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27037060402 compare to South St. Paul overall?
Tract 27037060402 scores 4.6/10, higher than the parent city of South St. Paul at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South St. Paul
Top eight tracts in South St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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