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Census Tract · Ranked #51,553 of 84,120 nationally

South St. Paul Eviction Risk: Lower

Tract 27037060402 · Dakota County, MN · pop 3,572

In South St. Paul, census tract 27037060402 scores 5.2/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #45,658 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 95% of renter households, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,272 a month against an average household income of $81,705 a year, roughly 19% of income at the averages. Renters make up 17% of occupied homes.

Risk score
3.4
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 1% Owners 83%
Tract context
Occupied units1,348
Renter share17.0%
SVI overall0.80
Poverty rate5.3%
Median income$81,705

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
40 th percentile
Rank, 40th percentileLowHigh
#4 of 6 tracts In South St. Paul
Moderate
Within county
90 th percentile
Rank, 90th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 106 tracts In Dakota County
High
Within state
51 th percentile
Rank, 51st percentileLowHigh
#740 of 1,502 tracts In Minnesota
Moderate
National
39 th percentile
Rank, 39th percentileLowHigh
#51,553 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Low
Geographic context

Risk heat across South St. Paul and the region

Centroid at 44.8711, -93.0263 · click any tract to drill in

Why South St. Paul scores 3.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from South St. Paul
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
5.3% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$1,272 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.6

How South St. Paul compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
South St. Paul risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.43.4This tracttract 060402South St. Paul: 5.15.1South St. Paulparent cityCounty: 2.12.1Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.53.5Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 80

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 86Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 6.39%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.7%Peak (2010)
  • 15Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2009 to 2013
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 270370604022009: 19 filings (6.13/100 renter HHs)2010: 22 filings (6.73/100 renter HHs)2011: 16 filings (6.78/100 renter HHs)2012: 14 filings (5.93/100 renter HHs)2013: 15 filings (6.36/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South St. Paul

The heaviest input here is eviction process difficulty at 3.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from South St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Dakota County average of 5.3 and in line with the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 80th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 12.1% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 7.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 27037060402

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27037060402?

Census tract 27037060402 in South St. Paul scores 3.4/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 27037060402?

Median gross rent is $1,272/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 95% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 27037060402?

5.3% of residents in tract 27037060402 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,572.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 27037060402?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 80th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 96th, minority 56th, housing 71th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27037060402?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 86 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 27037060402 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 6.39% of renter households, peaking at 6.7% in 2010. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

What share of households in tract 27037060402 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 27037060402 compare to South St. Paul overall?

Tract 27037060402 scores 3.4/10, lower than the parent city of South St. Paul at 5.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in South St. Paul

Top eight tracts in South St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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