Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Census Tract · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
South St. Paul Eviction Risk: Moderate
Tract 27037060401 · Dakota County, MN · pop 2,763
With a score of 4.9/10, tract 27037060401 in South St. Paul, MN reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 2,763. Severe burden reaches 36%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 14%
Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,046
Renter share24.8%
SVI overall0.51
Poverty rate9.2%
Median income$83,241
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
68
th percentile
Elevated
National
59
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across South St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.8791, -93.0398 · click any tract to drill in
Why South St. Paul scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from South St. Paul
7.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
9.2% poverty · this tract
2.3
Supply constraint
$1,241 rent vs county FMR
2.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.8
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from South St. Paul
3.6
How South St. Paul compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 51
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 40%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 1%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 35Total filings over 5 yrs
- 2.55%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.5%Peak (2009)
- 4Filings in 2013 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 69% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.0%Housing insecurity
- 7.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 13.2%Food insecurity
- 9.2%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 9.9%No health insurance
- 16.8%Frequent mental distress
- 28.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South St. Paul
The main counterweight is economic stress at 2.3/10. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.4/10.
On the high side, local political climate reads 7.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 35 evictions over 5 years of observation. It sits 0.7 points above the Dakota County average of 4.2.
Filings peaked in 2009 at 4.5% of renter households. This ground was mapped B ("Still Desirable") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for St. Paul. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 2.5% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 59th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 25% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 5.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Against average income of $83,241, annual rent is just 18%.
42% of renter households spend at least 30% of income on rent.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 27037060401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27037060401?
Census tract 27037060401 in South St. Paul scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27037060401?
Median gross rent is $1,241/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 42% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27037060401?
9.2% of residents in tract 27037060401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,763.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27037060401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 51th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 69th, minority 53th, housing 40th.
Q5
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27037060401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 35 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 27037060401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 2.55% of renter households, peaking at 4.5% in 2009. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6
What share of households in tract 27037060401 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 27037060401 compare to South St. Paul overall?
Tract 27037060401 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of South St. Paul at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from South St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 27037060401 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in South St. Paul
Top eight tracts in South St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Related