Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,926 of 84,120 nationally
Payne - Phalen Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Paul
Tract 27123030900 · Ramsey County, MN · pop 4,291 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Here is how census tract 27123030900, in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood of St. Paul, looks to a landlord: a 6.2/10 eviction-risk score (Elevated tier) across a population of 4,291. That is riskier than about 80% of US census tracts.
About 33% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a high level, and 17% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,460 monthly, set against $89,444 in average yearly household income, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 29% of occupied homes.
Risk score
5
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 9%
Stable renters 19%
Owners 72%
Tract context
Occupied units1,216
Renter share28.9%
SVI overall0.70
Poverty rate15.8%
Median income$89,444
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
46
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
70
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Paul and the region
Centroid at 44.9744, -93.0819 · click any tract to drill in
Why Payne - Phalen scores 5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Paul
9.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
7.3
State political climate
Minnesota legislature & governorship
4.3
Economic stress
15.8% poverty · this tract
4.0
Supply constraint
$1,460 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
7.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Paul
8.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Paul
7.5
How Payne - Phalen compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 70
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 64%Socioeconomic
- 60%Household composition
- 79%Racial/ethnic minority
- 64%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 83%Grade C
- 17%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 296Total filings over 7 yrs
- 9.44%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.5%Peak (2012)
- 33Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 33% over the past 7 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 132Total filings 2020-21
- 1.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 2.6Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.67×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Payne - Phalen. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 17.0%Housing insecurity
- 9.8%Utility-shutoff threat
- 24.8%Food insecurity
- 16.4%SNAP enrollment
- 13.1%Transit barriers
- 11.4%No health insurance
- 18.5%Frequent mental distress
- 30.0%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Payne - Phalen
What moves this score most is rent-control risk at 8.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Ramsey County average of 6.0 and above the Minnesota statewide average of 5.0. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
Part of this tract, about 17% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.67x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, well below the pre-pandemic norm, the signature of an eviction moratorium at work.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 27123030900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 27123030900?
Census tract 27123030900 in the Payne - Phalen neighborhood scores 5/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 27123030900?
Median gross rent is $1,460/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 33% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 27123030900?
15.8% of residents in tract 27123030900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,291.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 27123030900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 70th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 64th, household 60th, minority 79th, housing 64th.
Q5
Is tract 27123030900 considered part of Payne - Phalen?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 27123030900 fall within Payne - Phalen (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 27123030900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 296 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 27123030900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 9.44% of renter households, peaking at 11.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 27123030900 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.67× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Minneapolis eviction risk-Saint Paul, MN), 2020-2021.
Q8
What share of households in tract 27123030900 struggle to pay rent?
About 17.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q9
How does tract 27123030900 compare to St. Paul overall?
Tract 27123030900 scores 5/10, lower than the parent city of St. Paul at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Paul eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q10
Was tract 27123030900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 17% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Paul
Top eight tracts in St. Paul ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MN
Payne - Phalen
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
North End
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Rondo
6.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Eastview
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Snelling - Hamline
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MN
Highwood Hills
6.6
/ 10 · Elevated
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