West Central Eviction Risk: Moderate , Springfield

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 10/10. The severe-burden share is 34%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

The poverty rate is 59%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. 100% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Set annual rent against average income of $21,346 and the ratio lands at 47%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

On the softer side, rent-regulation exposure reads 1/10. Disability prevalence runs 44.6% against 31.5% nationally. Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 2/10.

It sits 1.1 points above the Greene County average of 3.7. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 16.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

At $842 a month, rents run 13% under what the rest of Springfield commands. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Springfield. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.