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Shoal Creek Estates, Missouri eviction risk overview
City brief · 218 residents

Shoal Creek Estates, MO Eviction Risk: LOW

Newton County · Population 218

In 2026
Risk score
2.6
LOW

86th percentile, Missouri.

50-yr Eviction Risk Score history

1976 to 2026 · climbing fast since 2010

Min2.1 Average2.5 Now2.6
3.1 2.1 1976 · score 2.5 1977 · score 2.5 1978 · score 2.4 1979 · score 2.5 1980 · score 2.6 1981 · score 2.5 1982 · score 2.6 1983 · score 2.5 1984 · score 2.3 1985 · score 2.2 1986 · score 2.1 1987 · score 2.1 1988 · score 2.4 1989 · score 2.4 1990 · score 2.4 1991 · score 2.5 1992 · score 3.0 1993 · score 3.0 1994 · score 3.0 1995 · score 3.0 1996 · score 3.0 1997 · score 2.9 1998 · score 2.6 1999 · score 2.6 2000 · score 2.5 2001 · score 2.5 2002 · score 2.5 2003 · score 2.5 2004 · score 2.4 2005 · score 2.3 2006 · score 2.3 2007 · score 2.3 2008 · score 2.7 2009 · score 2.8 2010 · score 2.9 2011 · score 2.9 2012 · score 2.7 2013 · score 2.6 2014 · score 2.5 2015 · score 2.4 2016 · score 2.4 2017 · score 2.3 2018 · score 2.2 2019 · score 2.2 2020 · score 2.9 2021 · score 3.1 2022 · score 2.2 2023 · score 2.3 2024 · score 2.6 2025 · score 2.6 2026 · score 2.6

Key metrics

Estimated values: The U.S. Census suppresses field-level data for small places. Estimated from county average, pop-weighted from real underlying ACS data.
Time machine

Scrub 50 years

2026
● LIVE · today ◀ REPLAY · historical

Nine-axis profile

9-axis profile · today

Shape of the risk surface

1 landlord · 10 tenant
Local 2.9 Regional 2.9 State 2.1 Economic 6.4 Supply 2.2 Rent Control 1.0 Eviction 1.8 Tenant 2.2 Housing 1.8 2.6 LOW
Sub-scores · with sparkline

Where the score comes from

1 → 10 scale
  1. Local political climate
    GOP margin +58.7% (2024)
    2.9
  2. Regional political climate
    County-weighted neighbor mix
    2.9
  3. State political climate
    Missouri legislature & governorship
    2.1
  4. Economic stress
    4.7% poverty · 20.0% unemp.
    6.4
  5. Supply constraint
    $802 average · 5.3% renters
    2.2
  6. Rent Control risk
    25.0% of income on rent
    1.0
  7. Eviction process difficulty
    41 days filing → judgment
    1.8
  8. Tenant organizing strength
    5.3% renters
    2.2
  9. Housing court bias
    County bench composition
    1.8
Geographic context

Risk heat across Shoal Creek Estates and the region

Click any city to see its score

How Shoal Creek Estates compares

Risk score vs. peers, county, state, and the U.S.
Rank in Newton County
High
#4 of 18 cities
Rank in county, 82nd percentileLowHigh
#4 of 18 cities in Newton County for landlord eviction risk.
Rank in Missouri
High
#209 of 1,082 cities
Rank in state, 81st percentileLowHigh
#209 of 1,082 cities in Missouri for landlord eviction risk.
vs. county · state · U.S.
Shoal Creek Estates risk score vs. county / state / U.S.Shoal Creek Estate: 2.62.6Shoal Creek EstateThis cityCounty: 2.42.4Countyavg in countyState: 2.62.6Stateavg in stateU.S.: 4.74.7U.S.national avg
Score story

Six-stop tour of the risk profile

  1. 2.6
    / 10 · LOW
    The verdict

    A Low-tier market.

    Composite 2.6/10. Mid-range market; standard documentation usually wins. The 50-year curve shows a slow, steady climb.

    50-yr trend+0.1 over 50 yr
    197620012026

    Steady ratchet · no large swings

  2. 41d
    Typical timeline
    The money

    What renting (and evicting) looks like.

    Rent published at $802/mo. A contested eviction takes 41 days and costs $1,286–$3,141 per case.

    50-yr trendCalendar drag rising since '15
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  3. 5.3%
    Renters
    The renters

    Who you'll be renting to.

    Out of 218 residents, 5.3% rent. 25% are spending 30%+ income on rent, 4.7% below the poverty line.

    50-yr trendRenter share rising
    197620012026

    ACS 1970-present · once the migration overlay is in.

  4. 2.9
    Local + regional
    The politics

    Light-statute interior market.

    Local & regional political climate score 2.9 and 2.9 (GOP margin +58.7% (2024)). State climate at 2.1, a mid-range statehouse.

    50-yr trendTracks county vote margin
    197620012026

    Built on 50-yr presidential margins back to 1976.

  5. 2.1
    State politics
    The process

    Moderate calendar, moderate friction.

    State political climate 2.1/10 sets the legislative ceiling for landlord remedies, and it shows up in the process. Eviction process difficulty reads 1.8, housing court bias 1.8, rent-control risk 1. Standard process speed for the state.

    50-yr trendProcess difficulty +-3.2 since '00
    197620012026

    Court-clerk data lands in the next release.

  6. 6.4
    Economic stress
    The stress

    Economic pressure is the background risk.

    Economic stress: 6.4. Supply constraint: 2.2. The numbers behind those: 4.7% poverty, 20.0% unemployment, 25% of income on rent.

    50-yr trendTwo visible dips · '08 + COVID
    197620012026

    Mirrors BLS unemployment series.

US eviction landscape · timeline × all-in cost

Shoal Creek Estates sits in the quick & cheap quadrant

Bubble size = population · color = risk score
QUICK BUT COSTLY fast docket · high all-in loss SLOW & EXPENSIVE long calendar · high all-in loss QUICK & CHEAP fast docket · low all-in loss SLOW BUT CHEAP long calendar · low all-in loss 30d 50d 75d 100d 150d 200d 300d 450d $2.0k $3.0k $5.0k $7.5k $10k $15k $20k $30k EVICTION TIMELINE (DAYS) → ↑ ALL-IN COST (LOG SCALE) Joplin, MO · 43d · ~$2.3k all-in ($54/day) · score 2.5 Joplin Kansas City, MO · 40d · ~$2.5k all-in ($63/day) · score 3 Kansas City St. Louis, MO · 43d · ~$2.4k all-in ($56/day) · score 3.3 St. Louis Springfield, MO · 38d · ~$3.8k all-in ($99/day) · score 2.5 Springfield Columbia, MO · 42d · ~$4.4k all-in ($104/day) · score 2.8 Columbia Independence, MO · 43d · ~$2.3k all-in ($52/day) · score 2.8 Independence Lee's Summit, MO · 41d · ~$2.4k all-in ($59/day) · score 2.5 Lee's Summit O'Fallon, MO · 37d · ~$2.2k all-in ($60/day) · score 2.1 O'Fallon St. Charles, MO · 36d · ~$2.5k all-in ($68/day) · score 2.3 St. Charles St. Joseph, MO · 41d · ~$2.3k all-in ($57/day) · score 2.2 St. Joseph Houston, TX · 24d · ~$2.5k all-in ($103/day) · score 2.8 Houston Phoenix, AZ · 38d · ~$3.3k all-in ($86/day) · score 2.8 Phoenix Memphis, TN · 31d · ~$2.0k all-in ($66/day) · score 3.1 Memphis Atlanta, GA · 40d · ~$2.8k all-in ($69/day) · score 3.4 Atlanta Boston, MA · 187d · ~$20.3k all-in ($109/day) · score 7.1 Boston Chicago, IL · 109d · ~$9.0k all-in ($82/day) · score 5.7 Chicago New York, NY · 417d · ~$29.5k all-in ($71/day) · score 9.7 New York Seattle, WA · 162d · ~$12.7k all-in ($79/day) · score 7.9 Seattle Shoal Creek Estates
Shoal Creek Estates · 41d · ~$2.2k all-in ($54/day) · score 2.6 National average: 58d · $4.6k all-in Hover any bubble for stats · click to open Color: 0–4   4–7   7–10
00Overview

About eviction risk in Shoal Creek Estates, MO

Landlording in Shoal Creek Estates, Missouri, presents a manageable operating environment for documented landlords. The Eviction Risk Score is 2.6/10 (LOW tier), drawn from the nine sub-axes shown above, covering rent-control exposure, eviction-process difficulty, housing-court bias, tenant-organizing strength, supply constraint, economic stress, and local, regional, and state political climate. This is not a quick-fix market: it's a Mid-tier market where lease drafting, screening discipline, and well-documented notices materially change outcomes.

Shoal Creek Estates is a city of 218 residents where 5.3% of occupied units are renter-occupied, and the typical renter spends 25.0% of income on rent. At an average rent of $802/month, the typical renter household here spends more than the federal 30% threshold on housing, a leading indicator of payment volatility and a precondition for the kinds of tenant defenses that show up most often in housing court.

01Process

How Shoal Creek Estates eviction process actually works

Eviction process difficulty here reads 1.8/10, a number that combines statutory complexity (notice categories, just-cause rules, mandatory pre-filing disclosures) with operational realities (court calendar length and clerk responsiveness). The typical contested filing in Shoal Creek Estates closes 41 days after the initial notice. For non-payment of rent the first step is a properly-formatted, properly-served pay-or-quit notice; for material lease breaches it's a cure-or-quit; for tenancies under just-cause protection an at-fault grounds notice (or a no-fault notice with statutory relocation assistance) is required.

The slow part of Shoal Creek Estates's timeline is usually the calendar, not the motion practice. Housing court bias scores 1.8/10 here, meaning judges read borderline procedural defects in the tenant's favor more often than the national norm. The practical implication: every notice and every proof of service needs to be airtight before it gets filed.

02Cost

What it costs (and how long it takes)

An all-in eviction in Shoal Creek Estates runs $1,286 to $3,141 per case once you account for filing fees, attorney time, lost rent during pendency, sheriff lockout, and unit turnover. That range is wide because the upper bound assumes a tenant answer plus motion practice, common when housing court bias is high. The lower bound assumes a default judgment after proper service.

For landlords running the numbers on holding costs vs. cash-for-keys: if your projected timeline times your monthly rent already exceeds the high-end cost number, cash-for-keys at 1–2 months' rent is typically the economically rational choice. With 41 days of typical timeline and $802/month in lost rent, that crossover happens fast here.

03Operations

Security deposits, screening, and lease terms

Tenant organizing strength scores 2.2/10 in Shoal Creek Estates, and the city has limited rent control exposure (1/10). Operations practice that survives audit in this environment looks like:

  • Screening discipline. Document income (verified at 2.5 to 3x rent), credit (with a clear minimum), and prior-tenancy reference checks, but do not screen on protected categories or source-of-income where banned. Keep a written, consistent screening criteria document for every applicant.
  • Lease specificity. Use a state-specific lease that names every term clearly: rent due date, late fees within statutory caps, deposit handling, smoke and CO disclosure, lead paint disclosure (pre-1978 stock), and a clean attorney's-fees clause.
  • Security deposit handling. Itemize deductions within the statutory window. Photograph move-in/move-out condition. In Missouri, deposit cap and refund window are statute, so exceed them at your own risk.
  • Mid-tenancy documentation. Keep date-stamped records of every rent receipt, every habitability request, every notice served. The day you need them in court is too late to start.
04Strategy

What an everyday landlord should actually do here

If you own one to four units in Shoal Creek Estates: hire a property manager who knows the local court. The pricing differential between self-managing and hiring out is small relative to the cost of one botched eviction in a LOW tier market. If you own five or more: build relationships with a local landlord-side attorney before you need one, since retainer fees are negligible compared to emergency-rate billing when an eviction is already moving.

The avoidable mistakes here are all upstream of the filing: weak screening, an informal lease, sloppy rent receipts, and notice templates pulled off the internet that don't match Missouri's statutory language. Fix those four, and most cases settle or default. Skip them, and a $3,141 all-in fight is the realistic worst case.

04bPractical traps

Local traps to avoid in Shoal Creek Estates

Trap · 57.4 POINTS
Newton County voted Republican by 57.4 points in 2020, a baseline that correlates with landlord-neutral statutory bias under RSMo 535.
04Eviction filings

Live filings tracking · Eviction Lab

Princeton Eviction Lab Tracking System, state-level (no county tracker available). Last update 2026-05-01.

In the most recent month, 3,285 eviction cases were filed across the tracker's coverage area, 0.88× the historical baseline (below baseline). Past 12 months: 44,239 filings. Pandemic-era cumulative: 244,075.

  • 3,285Past month
  • 44,239Past 12 months
  • 0.88×vs baseline (past mo)
  • 18.2%Repeat-tenant filings
Notice requirement: at least ten days notice (for nonpayment of rent cases, though in other cases more). Filing fee: minimum filing fee of $33.
Last 36 months of filings 2023-05-01 – 2026-04-01
Monthly eviction filings (Eviction Lab tracker)2023-05-01: 4,308 filings (1.04× hist)2023-06-01: 4,368 filings (1.09× hist)2023-07-01: 4,067 filings (0.98× hist)2023-08-01: 4,271 filings (1.01× hist)2023-09-01: 4,134 filings (1.03× hist)2023-10-01: 4,557 filings (1.07× hist)2023-11-01: 3,861 filings (1.05× hist)2023-12-01: 3,321 filings (0.95× hist)2024-01-01: 4,075 filings (1.04× hist)2024-02-01: 3,910 filings (0.99× hist)2024-03-01: 3,376 filings (0.89× hist)2024-04-01: 3,563 filings (0.96× hist)2024-05-01: 3,991 filings (0.96× hist)2024-06-01: 3,667 filings (0.91× hist)2024-07-01: 4,247 filings (1.02× hist)2024-08-01: 4,204 filings (0.99× hist)2024-09-01: 3,903 filings (0.97× hist)2024-10-01: 3,988 filings (0.93× hist)2024-11-01: 3,506 filings (0.95× hist)2024-12-01: 3,675 filings (1.05× hist)2025-01-01: 4,255 filings (1.09× hist)2025-02-01: 3,552 filings (0.91× hist)2025-03-01: 3,234 filings (0.85× hist)2025-04-01: 3,700 filings (1.00× hist)2025-05-01: 3,658 filings (0.88× hist)2025-06-01: 3,488 filings (0.87× hist)2025-07-01: 4,442 filings (1.07× hist)2025-08-01: 3,869 filings (0.91× hist)2025-09-01: 3,990 filings (0.99× hist)2025-10-01: 3,771 filings (0.88× hist)2025-11-01: 3,265 filings (0.89× hist)2025-12-01: 3,493 filings (1.00× hist)2026-01-01: 3,667 filings (0.94× hist)2026-02-01: 3,715 filings (0.96× hist)2026-03-01: 3,596 filings (0.95× hist)2026-04-01: 3,285 filings (0.88× hist)
Filings dropped 10% over the past 12 months.
05FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Q1

Can I evict a tenant in Shoal Creek Estates without a reason?

Missouri does not have a statewide just-cause eviction law. For month-to-month tenancies, you can typically terminate with a 30-day notice without stating a specific "cause," as long as it's not discriminatory or retaliatory. For tenants on a fixed-term lease, you generally need a lease violation or non-payment to evict.

Q2

How much can I charge for a security deposit in Shoal Creek Estates?

In Missouri, the maximum security deposit you can charge is two months' rent. If rent is $1,000, you can charge up to $2,000. You must return the deposit or provide an itemized list of deductions within 30 days of the tenant moving out.

Q3

What if my tenant refuses to leave after the court grants me possession?

If the judge grants you a judgment for possession and the tenant still won't leave, you'll need to obtain a "Writ of Possession" from the court. This document authorizes the sheriff to physically remove the tenant and their belongings. You cannot remove them yourself.

Q4

Are there rent control laws in Shoal Creek Estates or Missouri?

No, Missouri has a statewide ban on rent control. This means landlords in Shoal Creek Estates are generally free to set and increase rents as market conditions dictate, provided they give proper notice according to the lease terms. You can learn more at our Missouri rent control rules page.

Q5

What's the fastest way to get a problem tenant out in Shoal Creek Estates?

The fastest way is often through "cash for keys." If the tenant agrees to move out voluntarily in exchange for a payment and leaves the property in good condition, it can save you weeks or months of court proceedings and thousands in legal fees and lost rent. Always get the agreement in writing.

06Score

What this score means for landlords2

A 2.6/10 places Shoal Creek Estates in the 86th percentile of Missouri cities on the Eviction Risk Score index. The score is the average of the nine sub-axes, all calibrated on a national 1 to 10 scale where 1 is most landlord-friendly and 10 is most tenant-protective. The 50-year reconstruction shows this score has climbed steadily since 1976, a structural drift driven by court-calendar growth, rent-control adoption, and the rise of tenant-side legal aid. The trajectory matters more than the snapshot: the score is the climate, not the weather.