Lower West Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

The poverty rate is 58%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. The severe-burden share is 32%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.

It sits 2.5 points above the Erie County average of 6.8. This is renter territory: 91% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.

Housing insecurity runs 34.4% against 14.2% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 24.9% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. 54% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, above the Erie County average of 44.6%.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.9/10. At $806 a month, rents run 23% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. On the high side, local political climate reads 8/10.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. That is riskier than roughly 96% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.