Buffalo Eviction Risk: High

The score leans hardest on local political climate at 8/10. Running hot, eviction-process difficulty reads 8/10.

The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Food insecurity runs 31.3% against 17.8% nationally.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 2.4/10. At $865 a month, rents run 17% under what the rest of Buffalo commands. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 17.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Buffalo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. On the national scale it lands near the 96th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8/10.

Statewide the NY average is 7.7, so this tract runs 1.6 points hotter. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

Rent takes 30% or more of income for 44% of renters.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.