Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #675 of 84,120 nationally

Lower West Side Eviction Risk: High , Buffalo

Tract 36029007103 · Erie County, NY · pop 1,608 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

Census tract 36029007103 covers the Lower West Side area of Buffalo, home to 1,608 residents. For landlords it grades 7.4/10, an elevated reading. That is riskier than about 98% of US census tracts.

About 60% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 45% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $913 a month against an average household income of $32,669 a year, roughly 34% of income at the averages. About 98% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
8.8
High
Confidence 85% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 59% Stable renters 39% Owners 2%
Tract context
Occupied units753
Renter share97.9%
SVI overall0.84
Poverty rate60.0%
Median income$32,669

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Lower West Side
Moderate
Within parent city
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#35 of 91 tracts In Buffalo
Elevated
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#30 of 260 tracts In Erie County
High
Within state
93 th percentile
Rank, 93rd percentileLowHigh
#365 of 5,394 tracts In New York
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Buffalo and the region

Centroid at 42.8970, -78.8899 · click any tract to drill in

Why Lower West Side scores 8.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Buffalo
8.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.7
State political climate
New York legislature & governorship
7.3
Economic stress
60.0% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$913 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
8.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Buffalo
7.5

How Lower West Side compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Lower West Side risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 8.88.8This tracttract 007103Buffalo: 9.49.4Buffaloparent cityCounty: 6.06.0Countyavg tract in countyState: 5.95.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 84

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Lower West Side. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Lower West Side

The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 6.1 and above the New York statewide average of 6.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 42% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

The tract is Hispanic or Latino and White and ranks around the 84th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 36029007103

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 36029007103?

Census tract 36029007103 in the Lower West Side neighborhood scores 8.8/10 (High tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 36029007103?

Median gross rent is $913/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 36029007103?

60.0% of residents in tract 36029007103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,608.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 36029007103?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 84th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 66th, minority 82th, housing 60th.
Q5

Is tract 36029007103 considered part of Lower West Side?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 36029007103 fall within Lower West Side (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

What share of households in tract 36029007103 struggle to pay rent?

About 33.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 25.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7

How does tract 36029007103 compare to Buffalo overall?

Tract 36029007103 scores 8.8/10, lower than the parent city of Buffalo at 9.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Buffalo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 36029007103 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 42% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Buffalo

Top eight tracts in Buffalo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related