Group 14621 Eviction Risk: High

Internally this is not one market. Tract scores span 5.7 to 9.5, so two buildings inside the same boundary can carry materially different risk. The severe-burden share is 28%. Those renters are past the 50% mark, and they miss rent for reasons that have nothing to do with willingness to pay. CDC survey data puts housing insecurity at 26.9% of adults, against 14.2% nationally.

18.2% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 7.4/10.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.6/10. On the high side is eviction-process difficulty at 7.3/10. Among the 36 mapped neighborhoods of Rochester, it ranks #32 by risk, the lower third.

For a like-for-like read, North Winton Village and Genesee Valley Park score within a fraction of it. Social vulnerability runs high at 8.3/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

Average gross rent runs $1,064, close to the Rochester average.

Underwrite the address, not the area: with 3.8 points between its best and worst tract, the per-tract table below is the operative number. The number is rebuilt whenever its ACS, court-record, or statutory inputs change.