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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally

South Main Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Middletown

Tract 39017013100 · Butler County, OH · pop 2,260 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 39017013100 covers part of the South Main Street Historic District area of Middletown, OH, and scores 5.6/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,260 residents. 34% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 32% Stable renters 31% Owners 37%
Tract context
Occupied units734
Renter share62.8%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate37.2%
Median income$46,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In South Main Street Historic District
Very Low
Within parent city
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#7 of 18 tracts In Middletown
Elevated
Within county
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 86 tracts In Butler County
High
Within state
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#466 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Middletown and the region

Centroid at 39.5060, -84.4014 · click any tract to drill in

Why South Main Street Historic District scores 5.6

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Middletown
4.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
37.2% poverty · this tract
9.3
Supply constraint
$1,084 rent vs county FMR
3.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Middletown
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Middletown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Middletown
7.1

How South Main Street Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
South Main Street Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / state5.6This tracttract 0131004.2Middletownparent city4.3Countyavg tract in county4.2Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 78

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 883Total filings over 13 yrs
  • 13.92%Avg annual filing rate
  • 19.1%Peak (2018)
  • 98Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 39017013100
Filings climbed 109% over the past 13 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within South Main Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South Main Street Historic District

What pushes it up most is economic stress at 9.3/10. The poverty rate is 37%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.8/10.

50% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Butler County average of 39.6%. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10.

Against the Butler County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. Housing insecurity runs 25.6% against 14.2% nationally.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 20.2% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Court records carry 883 eviction filings across 13 observed years. Filings peaked in 2018 at 19.1% of renter households.

In a typical year about 13.9% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.

Frequently asked

About tract 39017013100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39017013100?

Census tract 39017013100 in the South Main Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39017013100?

Median gross rent is $1,084/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 50% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39017013100?

37.2% of residents in tract 39017013100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,260.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39017013100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 86th, household 94th, minority 61th, housing 28th.
Q5

Is tract 39017013100 considered part of South Main Street Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39017013100 fall within South Main Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39017013100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 883 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 39017013100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 13.92% of renter households, peaking at 19.1% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39017013100 struggle to pay rent?

About 25.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 20.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39017013100 compare to Middletown overall?

Tract 39017013100 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Middletown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Middletown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Middletown

Top eight tracts in Middletown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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