Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #22,681 of 84,120 nationally
South Main Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Middletown
Tract 39017013000 · Butler County, OH · pop 1,710 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
39017013000 is a census tract in the South Main Street Historic District area of Middletown, OH. It scores 5.6/10 for landlords. Population here is 1,710. What pushes it up most is court filing pressure at 8.8/10.
Risk score
5.6
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21%
Stable renters 40%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units648
Renter share60.6%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate31.1%
Median income$49,844
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
65
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
85
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Middletown and the region
Centroid at 39.5101, -84.4130 · click any tract to drill in
Why South Main Street Historic District scores 5.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Middletown
4.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
31.1% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$1,061 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Middletown
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Middletown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Middletown
7.1
How South Main Street Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 86
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 79%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 76%Racial/ethnic minority
- 56%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 600Total filings over 13 yrs
- 14.12%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.2%Peak (2018)
- 74Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 131% over the past 13 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within South Main Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 22.1%Housing insecurity
- 17.2%Utility-shutoff threat
- 29.5%Food insecurity
- 28.2%SNAP enrollment
- 14.6%Transit barriers
- 12.7%No health insurance
- 20.8%Frequent mental distress
- 36.6%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in South Main Street Historic District
The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.8/10.
The poverty rate is 31%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. SNAP participation runs 28.2% against 15.2% nationally. It sits 1.3 points above the Butler County average of 4.3.
Food insecurity runs 29.5% against 17.8% nationally. Sitting well above the midpoint, economic stress reads 7.8/10.
35% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, below the Butler County average of 39.6%. Court records carry 600 eviction filings across 13 observed years. The worst year on record was 2018, when 20.2% of renter households were served.
In a typical year about 14.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 73% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 39017013000
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39017013000?
Census tract 39017013000 in the South Main Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.6/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39017013000?
Median gross rent is $1,061/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39017013000?
31.1% of residents in tract 39017013000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,710.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39017013000?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 97th, minority 76th, housing 56th.
Q5
Is tract 39017013000 considered part of South Main Street Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39017013000 fall within South Main Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39017013000?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 600 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 39017013000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.12% of renter households, peaking at 20.2% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39017013000 struggle to pay rent?
About 22.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39017013000 compare to Middletown overall?
Tract 39017013000 scores 5.6/10, higher than the parent city of Middletown at 4.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Middletown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Middletown
Top eight tracts in Middletown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
39017013400
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39017013500
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39017013600
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39017014000
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
39017014100
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Rosedale / The Oaks
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Related