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Neighborhood · Ranked #23,554 of 84,120 nationally

South Main Street Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Middletown

Tract 39017013000 · Butler County, OH · pop 1,710 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

In the South Main Street Historic District area of Middletown, census tract 39017013000 scores 6.1/10 for eviction risk. It lands near the 77th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

35% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a high level, and 24% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,061 a month against an average household income of $49,844 a year, roughly 26% of income at the averages. About 61% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 40% Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units648
Renter share60.6%
SVI overall0.86
Poverty rate31.1%
Median income$49,844

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In South Main Street Historic District
Very Low
Within parent city
71 th percentile
Rank, 71st percentileLowHigh
#6 of 18 tracts In Middletown
Elevated
Within county
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 86 tracts In Butler County
High
Within state
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#622 of 3,162 tracts In Ohio
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Middletown and the region

Centroid at 39.5101, -84.4130 · click any tract to drill in

Why South Main Street Historic District scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Middletown
4.1
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
31.1% poverty · this tract
7.8
Supply constraint
$1,061 rent vs county FMR
3.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Middletown
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Middletown
8.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Middletown
7.1

How South Main Street Historic District compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
South Main Street Historic District risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.15.1This tracttract 013000Middletown: 2.82.8Middletownparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.73.7Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 86

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 600Total filings over 13 yrs
  • 14.12%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.2%Peak (2018)
  • 74Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 390170130002006: 32 filings (9.38/100 renter HHs)2007: 34 filings (9.97/100 renter HHs)2008: 42 filings (12.32/100 renter HHs)2009: 55 filings (16.13/100 renter HHs)2010: 47 filings (13.20/100 renter HHs)2011: 33 filings (11.66/100 renter HHs)2012: 41 filings (14.49/100 renter HHs)2013: 29 filings (10.25/100 renter HHs)2014: 44 filings (15.55/100 renter HHs)2015: 52 filings (18.37/100 renter HHs)2016: 58 filings (15.85/100 renter HHs)2017: 59 filings (16.12/100 renter HHs)2018: 74 filings (20.22/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 131% over the past 13 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within South Main Street Historic District. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in South Main Street Historic District

The heaviest input here is tenant organizing strength at 8.8/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Middletown eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Butler County average of 5.5 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 86th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 600 eviction filings here over 13 tracked years, with about 14.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 20.2% of renter households in 2018.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 39017013000

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39017013000?

Census tract 39017013000 in the South Main Street Historic District neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 39017013000?

Median gross rent is $1,061/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 35% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 39017013000?

31.1% of residents in tract 39017013000 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,710.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 39017013000?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 86th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 79th, household 97th, minority 76th, housing 56th.
Q5

Is tract 39017013000 considered part of South Main Street Historic District?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39017013000 fall within South Main Street Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39017013000?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 600 eviction filings across 13 validated years in tract 39017013000 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.12% of renter households, peaking at 20.2% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 39017013000 struggle to pay rent?

About 22.1% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 17.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 39017013000 compare to Middletown overall?

Tract 39017013000 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of Middletown at 2.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Middletown eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Middletown

Top eight tracts in Middletown ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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