Downtown Lorain Eviction Risk: Moderate

Annualized rent equals 58% of average household income of $17,045, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10.

Against Lorain County at 40.1%, 57% of renters here are cost-burdened. The poverty rate is 60%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Inability to pay a utility bill runs 31.1% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Housing insecurity runs 36.0% against 14.2% nationally. 77% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.6/10. Against the Lorain County average of 4.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.8 points.

Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Court records carry 1,015 eviction filings across 11 observed years. Filings peaked in 2012 at 16.5% of renter households.

This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Lorain. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 12.2% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 77th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.