Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #11,930 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Lorain Eviction Risk: Elevated
Tract 39093097300 · Lorain County, OH · pop 2,564 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
Census tract 39093097300 covers the Downtown Lorain neighborhood of Lorain, home to 2,564 residents. For landlords it grades 6.7/10, an elevated reading. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
Rent eats 30% or more of income for 57% of renter households, a severe level, and 40% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $817 monthly, set against $17,045 in average yearly household income, roughly 58% of income at the averages. About 77% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.
Risk score
6
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 33%
Owners 23%
Tract context
Occupied units1,152
Renter share76.8%
SVI overall0.97
Poverty rate59.9%
Median income$17,045
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
95
th percentile
Very High
Within county
99
th percentile
Very High
Within state
97
th percentile
Very High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Lorain and the region
Centroid at 41.4579, -82.1720 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown Lorain scores 6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Lorain
5.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.9
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
59.9% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$817 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Lorain
7.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.1
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Lorain
8.6
Housing court bias
Inherited from Lorain
8.0
How Downtown Lorain compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 97
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 99%Household composition
- 84%Racial/ethnic minority
- 85%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 47%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,015Total filings over 11 yrs
- 12.17%Avg annual filing rate
- 16.5%Peak (2012)
- 97Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 11 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown Lorain. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 36.0%Housing insecurity
- 31.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 53.1%Food insecurity
- 57.0%SNAP enrollment
- 26.8%Transit barriers
- 25.0%No health insurance
- 25.4%Frequent mental distress
- 52.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown Lorain
The score leans hardest on economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Lorain eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Lorain County average of 5.3 and above the Ohio statewide average of 5.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 36.0% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 31.1% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
The tract is Hispanic or Latino and Black and ranks around the 97th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.
For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.
Frequently asked
About tract 39093097300
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39093097300?
Census tract 39093097300 in the Downtown Lorain neighborhood scores 6/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39093097300?
Median gross rent is $817/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 57% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39093097300?
59.9% of residents in tract 39093097300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,564.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39093097300?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 97th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 99th, minority 84th, housing 85th.
Q5
Is tract 39093097300 considered part of Downtown Lorain?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39093097300 fall within Downtown Lorain (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39093097300?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,015 eviction filings across 11 validated years in tract 39093097300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.17% of renter households, peaking at 16.5% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39093097300 struggle to pay rent?
About 36.0% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 31.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39093097300 compare to Lorain overall?
Tract 39093097300 scores 6/10, higher than the parent city of Lorain at 2.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Lorain eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39093097300 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Lorain
Top eight tracts in Lorain ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
Pearl Village
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Evergreen Village
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
South Lorain
5.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
South Lorain
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Downtown Lorain
5.6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
South Lorain
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · OH
Pearl Village
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
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