Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #24,859 of 84,120 nationally
Vistula Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate , Toledo
Tract 39095002900 · Lucas County, OH · pop 1,763 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.4/10, tract 39095002900 in the Vistula Historic District area of Toledo, OH reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 1,763. The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10.
Risk score
5.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 41%
Stable renters 48%
Owners 11%
Tract context
Occupied units1,044
Renter share88.9%
SVI overall0.85
Poverty rate67.6%
Median income$11,055
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
84
th percentile
High
Within county
91
th percentile
Very High
Within state
83
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Toledo and the region
Centroid at 41.6602, -83.5295 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vistula Historic District scores 5.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Toledo
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Ohio legislature & governorship
2.4
Economic stress
67.6% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$245 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Toledo
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
4.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Toledo
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Toledo
4.0
How Vistula Historic District compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 85
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 91%Socioeconomic
- 41%Household composition
- 81%Racial/ethnic minority
- 80%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 58%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 2,387Total filings over 15 yrs
- 19.19%Avg annual filing rate
- 18.7%Peak (2004)
- 175Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 15 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 44.5%Housing insecurity
- 40.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 59.8%Food insecurity
- 66.2%SNAP enrollment
- 32.8%Transit barriers
- 20.7%No health insurance
- 28.9%Frequent mental distress
- 51.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vistula Historic District
Average gross rent is $245, 73% below the Toledo average. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 40.4% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. Food insecurity runs 59.8% against 17.8% nationally.
The poverty rate is 68%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. This is renter territory: 89% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
It sits 1.2 points above the Lucas County average of 4.2. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,387 filings here across 15 tracked years. Against Lucas County at 41.3%, 46% of renters here are cost-burdened.
The worst year on record was 2004, when 18.7% of renter households were served. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Toledo. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above. In a typical year about 19.2% of renter households face a filing.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 39095002900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 39095002900?
Census tract 39095002900 in the Vistula Historic District neighborhood scores 5.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 39095002900?
Median gross rent is $245/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 46% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 39095002900?
67.6% of residents in tract 39095002900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,763.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 39095002900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 85th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 91th, household 41th, minority 81th, housing 80th.
Q5
Is tract 39095002900 considered part of Vistula Historic District?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 39095002900 fall within Vistula Historic District (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 39095002900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 2,387 eviction filings across 15 validated years in tract 39095002900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 19.19% of renter households, peaking at 18.7% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 39095002900 struggle to pay rent?
About 44.5% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 40.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 39095002900 compare to Toledo overall?
Tract 39095002900 scores 5.4/10, higher than the parent city of Toledo at 4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Toledo eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 39095002900 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Toledo
Top eight tracts in Toledo ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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River East
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Birckhead Place
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Heather Downs
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Middle Grounds
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Cumberland Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
Bush Street Historic District
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · OH
ONYX
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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