Vistula Historic District Eviction Risk: Moderate

40.4% of adults report being unable to pay a utility bill, against a 9.2% national figure. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. At $245 a month, rents sit 73% under what the rest of Toledo commands.

The dominant input is economic stress at 10/10. The poverty rate is 68%, which shows up in this model as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

SNAP participation is 66.2% of households versus 15.2% nationally. 89% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over.

Running cool is supply constraint, at 1/10. Well under the midpoint is rent-regulation exposure, at 1.5/10. Severe burden reaches 18%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

Court records for this tract carry 2,387 eviction filings. Filing activity peaked in 2004 at 18.7% of renter households. Recent filings have not receded much: 20.5% in 2018 against a 18.7% peak.

That places it #1 of 45 neighborhoods in Toledo.

Because the boundary contains one tract, 5.4/10 is simultaneously the area figure and the address-level figure. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.