Downtown Erie Eviction Risk: Moderate

At $397 a month, rents run 54% under what the rest of Erie commands. The poverty rate is 56%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. 97% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 1/10. Annualized rent equals 32% of average household income of $14,846, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

It sits 1.5 points above the Erie County average of 4.3. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.

The severe-burden share is 13%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Court records carry 357 eviction filings across 7 observed years.

Filings peaked in 2002 at 6.0% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.