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Neighborhood · Ranked #5,690 of 84,120 nationally

Downtown Erie Eviction Risk: Elevated

Tract 42049000100 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,365 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

The Downtown Erie area of Erie is where census tract 42049000100 sits, home to 1,365 residents. Its landlord eviction-risk score is 6.3/10. On the national scale it ranks #15,179 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 44% of renter households, a severe level, and 13% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $397 monthly, set against $14,846 in average yearly household income, roughly 32% of income at the averages. About 97% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.8
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43% Stable renters 54% Owners 3%
Tract context
Occupied units1,147
Renter share96.5%
SVI overall0.93
Poverty rate55.7%
Median income$14,846

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Downtown Erie
Moderate
Within parent city
67 th percentile
Rank, 67th percentileLowHigh
#11 of 31 tracts In Erie
Elevated
Within county
85 th percentile
Rank, 85th percentileLowHigh
#12 of 73 tracts In Erie County
High
Within state
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#145 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1261, -80.0830 · click any tract to drill in

Why Downtown Erie scores 6.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
55.7% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$397 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Downtown Erie compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Downtown Erie risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.86.8This tracttract 000100Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 93

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 357Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 4.68%Avg annual filing rate
  • 6.0%Peak (2002)
  • 47Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490001002000: 55 filings (5.16/100 renter HHs)2001: 54 filings (5.07/100 renter HHs)2002: 64 filings (6.01/100 renter HHs)2003: 45 filings (4.23/100 renter HHs)2004: 36 filings (3.38/100 renter HHs)2005: 56 filings (4.84/100 renter HHs)2006: 47 filings (4.07/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Downtown Erie

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Part of this tract, about 9% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 357 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 4.7% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 6.0% of renter households in 2002.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000100

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000100?

Census tract 42049000100 in the Downtown Erie neighborhood scores 6.8/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049000100?

Median gross rent is $397/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000100?

55.7% of residents in tract 42049000100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,365.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000100?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 93th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 98th, household 60th, minority 45th, housing 92th.
Q5

Is tract 42049000100 considered part of Downtown Erie?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000100 fall within Downtown Erie (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049000100?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 357 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049000100 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.68% of renter households, peaking at 6.0% in 2002. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049000100 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000100 scores 6.8/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049000100 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 9% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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