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Neighborhood · Ranked #6,289 of 84,120 nationally

East Bayfront Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049000400 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,984 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi

How risky is the East Bayfront area of Erie for landlords? Census tract 42049000400 scores 6.3/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 82% of US census tracts.

55% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 16% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $793 a month against an average household income of $38,750 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. Renters make up 52% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28% Stable renters 23% Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units793
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate29.5%
Median income$38,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In East Bayfront
Very High
Within parent city
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#16 of 31 tracts In Erie
Moderate
Within county
81 th percentile
Rank, 81st percentileLowHigh
#15 of 73 tracts In Erie County
High
Within state
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#197 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1448, -80.0790 · click any tract to drill in

Why East Bayfront scores 6.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
29.5% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$793 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How East Bayfront compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
East Bayfront risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.76.7This tracttract 000400Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 81

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 425Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 10.07%Avg annual filing rate
  • 11.3%Peak (2006)
  • 67Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490004002000: 66 filings (10.87/100 renter HHs)2001: 60 filings (9.88/100 renter HHs)2002: 54 filings (8.90/100 renter HHs)2003: 64 filings (10.54/100 renter HHs)2004: 56 filings (9.23/100 renter HHs)2005: 58 filings (9.76/100 renter HHs)2006: 67 filings (11.28/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within East Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in East Bayfront

What moves this score most is economic stress at 7.4/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 425 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 10.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 11.3% of renter households in 2006.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 81st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000400?

Census tract 42049000400 in the East Bayfront neighborhood scores 6.7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049000400?

Median gross rent is $793/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000400?

29.5% of residents in tract 42049000400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,984.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 69th, minority 65th, housing 93th.
Q5

Is tract 42049000400 considered part of East Bayfront?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000400 fall within East Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049000400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 425 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049000400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.07% of renter households, peaking at 11.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049000400 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000400 scores 6.7/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049000400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 26% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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