Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
East Bayfront Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie
Tract 42049000400 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,984 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
Census tract 42049000400 covers part of the East Bayfront area of Erie, PA, and scores 5.8/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 1,984 residents. Cost burden runs 55% here against 42.3% across Erie County.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 49%
Tract context
Occupied units793
Renter share51.7%
SVI overall0.81
Poverty rate29.5%
Median income$38,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
83
th percentile
High
Within county
81
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.1448, -80.0790 · click any tract to drill in
Why East Bayfront scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
29.5% poverty · this tract
7.4
Supply constraint
$793 rent vs county FMR
2.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How East Bayfront compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 81
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 65%Racial/ethnic minority
- 93%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 2%Grade C
- 26%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 425Total filings over 7 yrs
- 10.07%Avg annual filing rate
- 11.3%Peak (2006)
- 67Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within East Bayfront. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in East Bayfront
The dominant input is court filing pressure at 8.2/10. The poverty rate is 30%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.
On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.1/10. Severe burden reaches 16%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate.
Running hot, economic stress reads 7.4/10. Court records carry 425 eviction filings across 7 observed years. Filings peaked in 2006 at 11.3% of renter households.
At $793 a month, rents run 9% under what the rest of Erie commands. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 10.1% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 8.3/10.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049000400
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000400?
Census tract 42049000400 in the East Bayfront neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049000400?
Median gross rent is $793/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000400?
29.5% of residents in tract 42049000400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,984.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000400?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 81th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 69th, minority 65th, housing 93th.
Q5
Is tract 42049000400 considered part of East Bayfront?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000400 fall within East Bayfront (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049000400?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 425 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049000400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.07% of renter households, peaking at 11.3% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049000400 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049000400 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049000400 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 26% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Erie
Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
Lakeside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastside Eagles
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Saint Mary
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Baldwin Park
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Little Italy
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Midtown
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Related