Saint Mary Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

The severe-burden share is 37%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The dominant input is economic stress at 8.9/10. The poverty rate is 36%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $27,917, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1.8/10. Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. The filing record is not thin: 894 evictions over 7 years of observation. At $762 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Erie commands.

Filings peaked in 2000 at 14.9% of renter households. This ground was mapped C ("Definitely Declining") on the 1930s HOLC security maps for Erie. That grading determined who could get a mortgage, and its imprint on tenure and rent burden is still visible in the ACS data above.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.