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Neighborhood · Ranked #4,782 of 84,120 nationally

Saint Mary Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049000800 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,192 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 42049000800 (the Saint Mary area of Erie, Pennsylvania) comes in at 6.4/10, the Elevated tier. That is riskier than about 84% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 62% of renter households, a severe level, and 37% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $762 a month against an average household income of $27,917 a year, roughly 33% of income at the averages. About 62% of occupied units are renter-occupied, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
7
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 39% Stable renters 23% Owners 38%
Tract context
Occupied units769
Renter share62.3%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate35.6%
Median income$27,917

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Saint Mary
Moderate
Within parent city
87 th percentile
Rank, 87th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 31 tracts In Erie
High
Within county
94 th percentile
Rank, 94th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Very High
Within state
99 th percentile
Rank, 99th percentileLowHigh
#54 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1301, -80.0751 · click any tract to drill in

Why Saint Mary scores 7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
35.6% poverty · this tract
8.9
Supply constraint
$762 rent vs county FMR
1.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Saint Mary compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Saint Mary risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 7.07.0This tracttract 000800Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 894Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 14.21%Avg annual filing rate
  • 14.9%Peak (2000)
  • 134Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490008002000: 141 filings (14.89/100 renter HHs)2001: 132 filings (13.94/100 renter HHs)2002: 116 filings (12.25/100 renter HHs)2003: 103 filings (10.88/100 renter HHs)2004: 130 filings (13.73/100 renter HHs)2005: 138 filings (17.12/100 renter HHs)2006: 134 filings (16.63/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Saint Mary

The heaviest input here is economic stress at 8.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 894 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 14.2% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 14.9% of renter households in 2000.

Part of this tract, about 16% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049000800

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049000800?

Census tract 42049000800 in the Saint Mary neighborhood scores 7/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049000800?

Median gross rent is $762/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 62% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049000800?

35.6% of residents in tract 42049000800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,192.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049000800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 95th, minority 72th, housing 51th.
Q5

Is tract 42049000800 considered part of Saint Mary?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049000800 fall within Saint Mary (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049000800?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 894 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049000800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.21% of renter households, peaking at 14.9% in 2000. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049000800 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049000800 scores 7/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049000800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 16% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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