Skip to content
Neighborhood · Ranked #5,198 of 84,120 nationally

Midtown Eviction Risk: Elevated , Erie

Tract 42049001300 · Erie County, PA · pop 1,805 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

How risky is Midtown in Erie for landlords? Census tract 42049001300 scores 6.6/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 88th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

55% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 46% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $801 a month while the average household earns $24,911 a year, roughly 39% of income at the averages. Renters make up 77% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
6.9
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 43% Stable renters 35% Owners 22%
Tract context
Occupied units607
Renter share77.3%
SVI overall0.99
Poverty rate55.8%
Median income$24,911

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Midtown
Moderate
Within parent city
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#8 of 31 tracts In Erie
High
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#10 of 73 tracts In Erie County
High
Within state
97 th percentile
Rank, 97th percentileLowHigh
#95 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1217, -80.0700 · click any tract to drill in

Why Midtown scores 6.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
55.8% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$801 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Midtown compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Midtown risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.96.9This tracttract 001300Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 99

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 418Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 15.76%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.0%Peak (2001)
  • 44Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490013002000: 70 filings (16.28/100 renter HHs)2001: 73 filings (16.98/100 renter HHs)2002: 63 filings (14.65/100 renter HHs)2003: 65 filings (15.12/100 renter HHs)2004: 52 filings (12.09/100 renter HHs)2005: 51 filings (18.89/100 renter HHs)2006: 44 filings (16.30/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 37% over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Midtown

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Erie County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is White and Black and ranks around the 99th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 418 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 15.8% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 17.0% of renter households in 2001.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049001300

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049001300?

Census tract 42049001300 in the Midtown neighborhood scores 6.9/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049001300?

Median gross rent is $801/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 55% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049001300?

55.8% of residents in tract 42049001300 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,805.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049001300?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 99th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 96th, household 93th, minority 74th, housing 98th.
Q5

Is tract 42049001300 considered part of Midtown?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049001300 fall within Midtown (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049001300?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 418 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049001300 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.76% of renter households, peaking at 17.0% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049001300 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049001300 scores 6.9/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049001300 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 85% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

Related