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Neighborhood · Ranked #22,213 of 84,120 nationally

Southeast Hills Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie

Tract 42049002800 · Erie County, PA · pop 6,642 · neighborhood within 0.1 mi

In the Southeast Hills area of Erie, census tract 42049002800 scores 5.6/10 for eviction risk. On the national scale it ranks #33,959 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

About 43% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 25% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $994 monthly, set against $61,438 in average yearly household income, roughly 19% of income at the averages. About 29% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
5.2
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 13% Stable renters 17% Owners 70%
Tract context
Occupied units2,394
Renter share29.2%
SVI overall0.41
Poverty rate12.4%
Median income$61,438

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Southeast Hills
Moderate
Within parent city
13 th percentile
Rank, 13th percentileLowHigh
#27 of 31 tracts In Erie
Very Low
Within county
57 th percentile
Rank, 57th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 73 tracts In Erie County
Elevated
Within state
77 th percentile
Rank, 77th percentileLowHigh
#810 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Erie and the region

Centroid at 42.1063, -80.0517 · click any tract to drill in

Why Southeast Hills scores 5.2

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
12.4% poverty · this tract
3.1
Supply constraint
$994 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0

How Southeast Hills compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Southeast Hills risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 5.25.2This tracttract 002800Erie: 4.84.8Erieparent cityCounty: 4.94.9Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 41

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 117Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 3.30%Avg annual filing rate
  • 5.6%Peak (2005)
  • 19Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 420490028002000: 18 filings (3.36/100 renter HHs)2001: 12 filings (2.24/100 renter HHs)2002: 17 filings (3.18/100 renter HHs)2003: 14 filings (2.62/100 renter HHs)2004: 11 filings (2.06/100 renter HHs)2005: 26 filings (5.56/100 renter HHs)2006: 19 filings (4.06/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 7 months.
Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Southeast Hills

What moves this score most is eviction process difficulty at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Erie eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Erie County average of 5.6 and in line with the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 41st percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of B ("Still Desirable"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 42049002800

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049002800?

Census tract 42049002800 in the Southeast Hills neighborhood scores 5.2/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42049002800?

Median gross rent is $994/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 43% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42049002800?

12.4% of residents in tract 42049002800 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,642.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42049002800?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 41th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 43th, household 12th, minority 24th, housing 74th.
Q5

Is tract 42049002800 considered part of Southeast Hills?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049002800 fall within Southeast Hills (neighborhood centroid within 0.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049002800?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 117 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049002800 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 3.30% of renter households, peaking at 5.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42049002800 compare to Erie overall?

Tract 42049002800 scores 5.2/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.8/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42049002800 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Erie

Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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