Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #20,506 of 84,120 nationally
Little Italy Eviction Risk: Moderate , Erie
Tract 42049001200 · Erie County, PA · pop 2,561 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
With a score of 5.8/10, tract 42049001200 in the Little Italy area of Erie, PA reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,561 residents. roughly two in three of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Erie County average of 42.3%.
Risk score
5.8
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 44%
Stable renters 23%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,101
Renter share67.5%
SVI overall0.91
Poverty rate44.2%
Median income$24,747
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
86
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Erie and the region
Centroid at 42.1156, -80.0926 · click any tract to drill in
Why Little Italy scores 5.8
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Erie
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
44.2% poverty · this tract
10.0
Supply constraint
$840 rent vs county FMR
2.5
Rent control risk
Inherited from Erie
3.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Erie
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Erie
5.0
How Little Italy compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 91
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 66%Racial/ethnic minority
- 79%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 51%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 880Total filings over 7 yrs
- 17.69%Avg annual filing rate
- 19.6%Peak (2001)
- 96Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 21% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Little Italy. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Little Italy
The score leans hardest on economic stress at 10/10. The severe-burden share is 35%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
The poverty rate is 44%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Set annual rent against average income of $24,747 and the ratio lands at 41%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
This is renter territory: 67% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10.
Against the Erie County average of 4.3, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.5 points. Well under the midpoint, supply constraint reads 2.5/10.
Court records carry 880 eviction filings across 7 observed years. The worst year on record was 2001, when 19.6% of renter households were served.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 17.7% of renter households face a filing.
On the national scale it lands near the 76th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 42049001200
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42049001200?
Census tract 42049001200 in the Little Italy neighborhood scores 5.8/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 42049001200?
Median gross rent is $840/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 42049001200?
44.2% of residents in tract 42049001200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,561.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 42049001200?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 91th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 95th, minority 66th, housing 79th.
Q5
Is tract 42049001200 considered part of Little Italy?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42049001200 fall within Little Italy (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42049001200?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 880 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42049001200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.69% of renter households, peaking at 19.6% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
How does tract 42049001200 compare to Erie overall?
Tract 42049001200 scores 5.8/10, higher than the parent city of Erie at 4.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Erie eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 42049001200 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 51% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Erie
Top eight tracts in Erie ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · PA
South Erie Hillside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
West Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Little Italy
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
East Bayfront
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Kingtown
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Lakeside
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Eastside Eagles
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · PA
Saint Mary
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
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