Northwest Triangle Eviction Risk: Elevated , York

Against the York County average of 4.4, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.9 points. At $487 a month, rents run 52% under what the rest of York commands. The poverty rate is 50%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

57% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the York County average of 42.6%. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.5/10.

Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 9.2/10. 79% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Annualized rent equals 36% of average household income of $16,156, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

20% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 404 filings here across 7 tracked years. Filings peaked in 2004 at 13.6% of renter households.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 9.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 87% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Social vulnerability reads 9.8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.