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Neighborhood · Ranked #8,138 of 84,120 nationally

Elmwood Eviction Risk: Elevated , York

Tract 42133000400 · York County, PA · pop 1,951 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi

Landlord eviction risk in census tract 42133000400 (Elmwood in York, Pennsylvania) comes in at 6.7/10, the Elevated tier. It lands near the 90th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 44% of renter households, a severe level, and 28% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,046 a month while the average household earns $43,750 a year, roughly 29% of income at the averages. Renters make up 46% of occupied homes.

Risk score
6.4
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 26% Owners 53%
Tract context
Occupied units847
Renter share46.4%
SVI overall0.90
Poverty rate28.2%
Median income$43,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 2 tracts In Elmwood
Very High
Within parent city
75 th percentile
Rank, 75th percentileLowHigh
#5 of 17 tracts In York
High
Within county
95 th percentile
Rank, 95th percentileLowHigh
#6 of 108 tracts In York County
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#295 of 3,445 tracts In Pennsylvania
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across York and the region

Centroid at 39.9724, -76.7074 · click any tract to drill in

Why Elmwood scores 6.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from York
4.4
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
3.8
State political climate
Pennsylvania legislature & governorship
3.4
Economic stress
28.2% poverty · this tract
7.1
Supply constraint
$1,046 rent vs county FMR
2.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from York
7.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from York
9.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from York
7.7

How Elmwood compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Elmwood risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 6.46.4This tracttract 000400York: 4.34.3Yorkparent cityCounty: 3.43.4Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.93.9Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 90

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 272Total filings over 7 yrs
  • 11.94%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.6%Peak (2004)
  • 40Filings in 2006 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2000 to 2006
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 421330004002000: 29 filings (8.91/100 renter HHs)2001: 31 filings (9.53/100 renter HHs)2002: 32 filings (9.83/100 renter HHs)2003: 33 filings (10.14/100 renter HHs)2004: 67 filings (20.59/100 renter HHs)2005: 40 filings (12.30/100 renter HHs)2006: 40 filings (12.30/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 38% over the past 7 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Elmwood. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Elmwood

The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at 9.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from York eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the York County average of 5.6 and above the Pennsylvania statewide average of 5.4. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 272 eviction filings here over 7 tracked years, with about 11.9% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 20.6% of renter households in 2004.

Part of this tract, about 12% of its area, sat in the redlined grade-D zone on 1930s HOLC maps, though its dominant grade was C ("Declining"). That lending history still correlates with present-day rent burden.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 42133000400

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 42133000400?

Census tract 42133000400 in the Elmwood neighborhood scores 6.4/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 42133000400?

Median gross rent is $1,046/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 42133000400?

28.2% of residents in tract 42133000400 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,951.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 42133000400?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 90th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 87th, household 99th, minority 77th, housing 47th.
Q5

Is tract 42133000400 considered part of Elmwood?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 42133000400 fall within Elmwood (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 42133000400?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 272 eviction filings across 7 validated years in tract 42133000400 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.94% of renter households, peaking at 20.6% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

How does tract 42133000400 compare to York overall?

Tract 42133000400 scores 6.4/10, higher than the parent city of York at 4.3/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from York eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8

Was tract 42133000400 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 12% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in York

Top eight tracts in York ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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