Royal Square District Eviction Risk: Elevated

What pushes the score up most is tenant-organizing strength at 9.5/10. Severe burden reaches 27%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.

68% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building two streets over. On the softer side is supply constraint, at 1.6/10. The poverty rate is 28%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than the filing statistics suggest.

On the high side is housing-court posture at 7.7/10. Court records carry 3,317 eviction filings across its 4 observed tracts.

Average gross rent is $882, 13% below the York average of $1,014. The worst year on record was 2006, when filings touched 36.5% of renter households.

Among the 11 mapped neighborhoods of York, it ranks #1 by risk, the upper third. Judgments average 11.0% of renter households a year, the share of filings that actually convert to an order. The closest comparables inside the same city are Park Village and Northwest Triangle.

Social vulnerability runs high at 9.5/10, concentrating the disaster- and displacement-exposure this model treats as a lagging risk input.

With little internal variation, 7.3/10 is a fair proxy for any address inside the boundary. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.