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Neighborhood · Ranked #52,479 of 84,120 nationally

Shawnee Village Eviction Risk: Lower , Sun City West

Tract 04013040531 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 3,713 · neighborhood within 0.0 mi

With a score of 3.8/10, tract 04013040531 in the Shawnee Village area of Surprise, AZ reads lower for landlord eviction risk. Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 68% of renters here are cost-burdened.

Risk score
3.8
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 7% Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units2,016
Renter share21.8%
SVI overall0.59
Poverty rate9.5%
Median income$59,394

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0 th percentile
Rank, 0th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 2 tracts In Shawnee Village
Very Low
Within parent city
96 th percentile
Rank, 96th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 29 tracts In Sun City West
Very High
Within county
62 th percentile
Rank, 62nd percentileLowHigh
#385 of 1,009 tracts In Maricopa
Elevated
Within state
60 th percentile
Rank, 60th percentileLowHigh
#702 of 1,765 tracts In Arizona
Elevated
Geographic context

Risk heat across Sun City West and the region

Centroid at 33.6451, -112.3676 · click any tract to drill in

Why Shawnee Village scores 3.8

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Sun City West
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
9.5% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,897 rent vs county FMR
4.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Sun City West
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Sun City West
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Sun City West
2.0

How Shawnee Village compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Shawnee Village risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 3.83.8This tracttract 040531Sun City West: 3.73.7Sun City Westparent cityCounty: 3.73.7Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.83.8Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 59

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 329Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 33.61%Avg annual filing rate
  • 59.0%Peak (2004)
  • 88Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2001 to 2005
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 040130405312001: 22 filings (11.09/100 renter HHs)2002: 61 filings (30.74/100 renter HHs)2003: 41 filings (20.66/100 renter HHs)2004: 117 filings (58.97/100 renter HHs)2005: 88 filings (46.61/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 300% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Shawnee Village. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Shawnee Village

The severe-burden share is 28%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The clearest offset is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Set annual rent against average income of $59,394 and the ratio lands at 38%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Running cool, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10.

Court records carry 329 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Housing insecurity runs 6.7% against 14.2% nationally. The worst year on record was 2004, when 59.0% of renter households were served.

In a typical year about 33.6% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 38% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

At 22% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.3/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.

Frequently asked

About tract 04013040531

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013040531?

Census tract 04013040531 in the Shawnee Village neighborhood scores 3.8/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 04013040531?

Median gross rent is $1,897/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 04013040531?

9.5% of residents in tract 04013040531 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,713.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 04013040531?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 59th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 48th, household 25th, minority 29th, housing 93th.
Q5

Is tract 04013040531 considered part of Shawnee Village?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013040531 fall within Shawnee Village (neighborhood centroid within 0.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013040531?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 329 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013040531 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 33.61% of renter households, peaking at 59.0% in 2004. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 04013040531 struggle to pay rent?

About 6.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.2% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 04013040531 compare to Sun City West overall?

Tract 04013040531 scores 3.8/10, right in line with the parent city of Sun City West at 3.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Sun City West eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Sun City West

Top eight tracts in Sun City West ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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