Within neighborhood
33
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #54,273 of 84,120 nationally
Surprise Original Townsite Eviction Risk: Lower
Tract 04013061029 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 5,110 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
04013061029 is a census tract in the Surprise Original Townsite area of Surprise, AZ. It scores 3.7/10 for landlords. Population here is 5,110. 68% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Maricopa County average of 46.0%.
Risk score
3.7
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 28%
Stable renters 13%
Owners 59%
Tract context
Occupied units1,949
Renter share41.9%
SVI overall0.62
Poverty rate11.9%
Median income$72,047
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
86
th percentile
High
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
57
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Surprise and the region
Centroid at 33.6312, -112.3507 · click any tract to drill in
Why Surprise Original Townsite scores 3.7
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Surprise
2.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
11.9% poverty · this tract
3.0
Supply constraint
$1,627 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Surprise
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Surprise
1.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Surprise
2.0
How Surprise Original Townsite compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 62
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 51%Socioeconomic
- 69%Household composition
- 49%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 126Total filings over 5 yrs
- 69.96%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.6%Peak (2005)
- 56Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 700% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Surprise Original Townsite. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.6%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 14.2%Food insecurity
- 10.5%SNAP enrollment
- 7.9%Transit barriers
- 11.0%No health insurance
- 15.2%Frequent mental distress
- 32.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Surprise Original Townsite
The severe-burden share is 29%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10.
Well under the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 1.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,627, 20% below the Surprise average.
Court records carry 126 eviction filings across 5 observed years. Filings peaked in 2005 at 7.6% of renter households. In a typical year about 70.0% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #54,273 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 6.6/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
It tracks the Maricopa County average of 3.7 closely.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013061029
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013061029?
Census tract 04013061029 in the Surprise Original Townsite neighborhood scores 3.7/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013061029?
Median gross rent is $1,627/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 68% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013061029?
11.9% of residents in tract 04013061029 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 5,110.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013061029?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 62th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 51th, household 69th, minority 49th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 04013061029 considered part of Surprise Original Townsite?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013061029 fall within Surprise Original Townsite (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013061029?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 126 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013061029 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 69.96% of renter households, peaking at 7.6% in 2005. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013061029 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.6% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013061029 compare to Surprise overall?
Tract 04013061029 scores 3.7/10, higher than the parent city of Surprise at 3.2/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Surprise eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Surprise
Top eight tracts in Surprise ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Shawnee Village
3.8
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Veramonte
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arapaho Village
3.7
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Arizona Traditions
3.6
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Bell West Ranch
3.4
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Tract · AZ
Sierra
3.3
/ 10 · Low
Related
Explore the geography around tract 04013061029
Parent city ↑
Surprise
3.2 / 10
Parent county ↑
Maricopa
Parent state ↑
Arizona
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
4.1 / 10
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
3 / 10
Sibling tract →
Surprise Original Townsite
4.6 / 10
Methodology
How the score is built
Interactive map
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