Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally
Thunderbird Valley Number Two Eviction Risk: Moderate , Phoenix
Tract 04013103900 · Maricopa, AZ · pop 6,754 · neighborhood within 0.9 mi
With a score of 4.4/10, tract 04013103900 in the Thunderbird Valley Number Two area of Phoenix, AZ reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,754. 32% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 15%
Owners 61%
Tract context
Occupied units2,501
Renter share38.9%
SVI overall0.60
Poverty rate14.3%
Median income$70,917
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
58
th percentile
Elevated
Within county
73
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
71
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Phoenix and the region
Centroid at 33.6036, -112.1053 · click any tract to drill in
Why Thunderbird Valley Number Two scores 4.4
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Phoenix
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.1
State political climate
Arizona legislature & governorship
2.2
Economic stress
14.3% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,399 rent vs county FMR
2.2
Rent control risk
Inherited from Phoenix
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Phoenix
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Phoenix
3.0
How Thunderbird Valley Number Two compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 60
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 70%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 58%Racial/ethnic minority
- 60%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 650Total filings over 5 yrs
- 17.76%Avg annual filing rate
- 20.9%Peak (2003)
- 86Filings in 2005 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 32% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Thunderbird Valley Number Two. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.7%Housing insecurity
- 7.7%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.8%Food insecurity
- 12.4%SNAP enrollment
- 9.5%Transit barriers
- 14.7%No health insurance
- 16.3%Frequent mental distress
- 30.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Thunderbird Valley Number Two
Against Maricopa County at 46.0%, 60% of renters here are cost-burdened. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.9/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.2/10.
The filing record is not thin: 650 evictions over 5 years of observation. It sits 0.7 points above the Maricopa County average of 3.7. At $1,399 a month, rents run 12% under what the rest of Phoenix commands.
Filings peaked in 2003 at 20.9% of renter households. In a typical year about 17.8% of renter households face a filing.
That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 04013103900
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 04013103900?
Census tract 04013103900 in the Thunderbird Valley Number Two neighborhood scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 04013103900?
Median gross rent is $1,399/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 04013103900?
14.3% of residents in tract 04013103900 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,754.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 04013103900?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 60th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 70th, household 25th, minority 58th, housing 60th.
Q5
Is tract 04013103900 considered part of Thunderbird Valley Number Two?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 04013103900 fall within Thunderbird Valley Number Two (neighborhood centroid within 0.9 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 04013103900?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 650 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 04013103900 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 17.76% of renter households, peaking at 20.9% in 2003. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 04013103900 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 7.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 04013103900 compare to Phoenix overall?
Tract 04013103900 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Phoenix at 3.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Phoenix eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Phoenix
Top eight tracts in Phoenix ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · AZ
04013109102
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Park Phoenix
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Alhambra
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Maryvale Terrace
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
North Garfield
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
Thunderbird Valley Number Two
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013114402
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · AZ
04013116736
5
/ 10 · Moderate
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