Bellview Ranch Eviction Risk: Elevated , Merced

What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. Average gross rent is $2,601, 87% above the Merced average.

The voucher gap is 72.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, tenant-organizing strength reads 9.4/10. Annualized rent equals 33% of average household income of $93,707, past the 30% affordability line, which thins the margin any screening standard has to work with.

Sitting well above the midpoint, housing-court posture reads 7.8/10. The severe-burden share is 11%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. The poverty rate is 19%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest.

That is riskier than roughly 85% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model. Social vulnerability reads 6.4/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the socioeconomic standing measure is the most pressured.

It tracks the Merced County average of 7.1 closely. 34% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.