Census Tract · Ranked #23,554 of 84,120 nationally

Modesto Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 06099000512 · Stanislaus, CA · pop 3,407

Tract 06099000512, home to 3,407 residents in Modesto, scores 6.4/10 for landlord eviction risk. That is riskier than about 86% of US census tracts.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 52% of renter households, a severe level, and 39% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $2,128 a month while the average household earns $138,750 a year, roughly 18% of income at the averages. About 15% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score

5.1

Moderate

Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale

Household mix · 100 hh

Burdened renters 8% Stable renters 7% Owners 85%

Tract context

Occupied units1,132

Renter share15.4%

SVI overall0.42

Poverty rate13.5%

Median income$138,750

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Modesto and the region

Centroid at 37.6932, -121.0418 · click any tract to drill in

Why Modesto scores 5.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly

Local political climate

Inherited from Modesto

5.5

Regional political climate

2024 county presidential margin

5.0

State political climate

California legislature & governorship

6.8

Economic stress

13.5% poverty · this tract

3.4

Supply constraint

$2,128 rent vs county FMR

8.6

Rent control risk

Inherited from Modesto

7.9

Eviction process difficulty

State law sets the calendar

6.5

Tenant organizing strength

Inherited from Modesto

8.3

Housing court bias

Inherited from Modesto

7.0

How Modesto compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.

CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 42

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

25%Socioeconomic
92%Household composition
47%Racial/ethnic minority
26%Housing & transportation

Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

8.7%Housing insecurity
4.8%Utility-shutoff threat
10.0%Food insecurity
9.2%SNAP enrollment
6.1%Transit barriers
6.3%No health insurance
14.2%Frequent mental distress
32.5%Any disability

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Modesto

The score leans hardest on supply constraint at 8.6/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Modesto eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores above the Stanislaus County average of 5.8 and above the California statewide average of 6.1. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

In CDC survey modeling, about 8.7% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 4.8% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 42nd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, this is a tract where process discipline pays off. Clean paperwork and steady screening keep the elevated risk manageable.

Frequently asked

About tract 06099000512

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 06099000512?

Census tract 06099000512 in Modesto scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.

What is the average rent in tract 06099000512?

Median gross rent is $2,128/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 52% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What is the poverty rate in tract 06099000512?

13.5% of residents in tract 06099000512 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,407.

How socially vulnerable is tract 06099000512?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 42th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 25th, household 92th, minority 47th, housing 26th.

What share of households in tract 06099000512 struggle to pay rent?

About 8.7% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.

How does tract 06099000512 compare to Modesto overall?

Tract 06099000512 scores 5.1/10, lower than the parent city of Modesto at 8.1/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Modesto eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.

Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Modesto

Top eight tracts in Modesto ranked by composite eviction-risk score.