Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Downtown Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103021502 · Pinellas, FL · pop 1,458 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Tract 12103021502 sits in the Downtown area of St. Petersburg, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.3/10. Population here is 1,458. The severe-burden share is 45%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 60%
Stable renters 24%
Owners 16%
Tract context
Occupied units1,011
Renter share84.0%
SVI overall0.64
Poverty rate11.1%
Median income$34,874
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
80
th percentile
High
Within county
67
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
63
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7748, -82.6407 · click any tract to drill in
Why Downtown scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
11.1% poverty · this tract
2.8
Supply constraint
$1,647 rent vs county FMR
3.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Downtown compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 64
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 63%Socioeconomic
- 7%Household composition
- 45%Racial/ethnic minority
- 96%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 55%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 120Total filings 2020-21
- 1.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 1.7Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.99×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Downtown. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Downtown
Set annual rent against average income of $34,874 and the ratio lands at 57%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Against Pinellas County at 53.4%, 71% of renters here are cost-burdened. This is renter territory: 84% of occupied units are tenant-occupied.
The clearest offset is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
On the softer side, economic stress reads 2.8/10. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 6.7/10. Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Pinellas County average of 3.8 closely. Average gross rent is $1,647, close to the St. Petersburg average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103021502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103021502?
Census tract 12103021502 in the Downtown neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103021502?
Median gross rent is $1,647/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103021502?
11.1% of residents in tract 12103021502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,458.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103021502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 64th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 7th, minority 45th, housing 96th.
Q5
Is tract 12103021502 considered part of Downtown?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103021502 fall within Downtown (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
Did eviction filings in tract 12103021502 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.99× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q7
How does tract 12103021502 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103021502 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q8
Was tract 12103021502 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Holiday Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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