Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Riviera Bay Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103024410 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,862 · neighborhood within 0.4 mi
Tract 12103024410 sits in the Riviera Bay area of St. Petersburg, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 4.9/10. It is home to 3,862 residents. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 40%
Stable renters 27%
Owners 33%
Tract context
Occupied units1,717
Renter share66.4%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate21.9%
Median income$53,809
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
92
th percentile
Very High
Within county
88
th percentile
High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.8539, -82.6418 · click any tract to drill in
Why Riviera Bay scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
21.9% poverty · this tract
5.5
Supply constraint
$1,441 rent vs county FMR
2.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Riviera Bay compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 84%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 53%Racial/ethnic minority
- 46%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 17%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 1,099Total filings over 18 yrs
- 10.62%Avg annual filing rate
- 12.1%Peak (2013)
- 56Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 65% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 214Total filings 2020-21
- 2.9Avg monthly (observed)
- 5.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.54×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran far below baseline (moratorium effect). Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Riviera Bay
Pulling hardest the other way is state political climate at 1.5/10. Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. Set annual rent against average income of $53,809 and the ratio lands at 32%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.
This is renter territory: 66% of occupied units are tenant-occupied. Cost burden runs 60% here against 53.4% across Pinellas County.
The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. On the softer side, supply constraint reads 2.3/10.
It sits 1.1 points above the Pinellas County average of 3.8. The filing record is not thin: 1,099 evictions over 18 years of observation.
Average gross rent is $1,441, 13% below the St. Petersburg average. Filings peaked in 2013 at 12.1% of renter households.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103024410
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103024410?
Census tract 12103024410 in the Riviera Bay neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103024410?
Median gross rent is $1,441/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 60% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103024410?
21.9% of residents in tract 12103024410 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,862.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103024410?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 84th, household 72th, minority 53th, housing 46th.
Q5
Is tract 12103024410 considered part of Riviera Bay?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103024410 fall within Riviera Bay (neighborhood centroid within 0.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103024410?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 1,099 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103024410 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 10.62% of renter households, peaking at 12.1% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103024410 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.54× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings dropped sharply, likely a moratorium effect. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103024410 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103024410 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103024410 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 17% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Edge District
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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