Within neighborhood
60
th percentile
Elevated
Neighborhood · Ranked #50,654 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103028102 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,801 · neighborhood within 0.8 mi
Tract 12103028102 sits in the Bear Creek area of Bear Creek, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3.9/10. It is home to 3,801 residents. 61% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 24%
Stable renters 3%
Owners 73%
Tract context
Occupied units1,785
Renter share27.1%
SVI overall0.49
Poverty rate14.3%
Median income$90,515
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
50
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
56
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
53
th percentile
Moderate
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7488, -82.7213 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 3.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.3% poverty · this tract
3.6
Supply constraint
$1,700 rent vs county FMR
3.6
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
9.6
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.3
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
7.4
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
8.2
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 49
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 48%Household composition
- 8%Racial/ethnic minority
- 69%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 111Total filings over 17 yrs
- 1.52%Avg annual filing rate
- 2.5%Peak (2015)
- 9Filings in 2016 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 100% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 42Total filings 2020-21
- 0.6Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.3Pre-pandemic baseline
- 1.75×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran above baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
Against Pinellas County at 53.4%, 88% of renters here are cost-burdened. The dominant input is rent-regulation exposure at 9.6/10.
Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.3/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 1.5/10.
The filing record is not thin: 111 evictions over 17 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2015, when 2.5% of renter households were served.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground D ("Hazardous"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 1.5% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 40th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored.
CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 5.4/10. It tracks the Pinellas County average of 3.8 closely. Average gross rent is $1,700, close to the Bear Creek average.
Annual rent works out to 23% of average household income of $90,515.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103028102
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103028102?
Census tract 12103028102 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103028102?
Median gross rent is $1,700/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 88% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103028102?
14.3% of residents in tract 12103028102 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,801.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103028102?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 49th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 48th, minority 8th, housing 69th.
Q5
Is tract 12103028102 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103028102 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.8 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103028102?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 111 eviction filings across 17 validated years in tract 12103028102 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.52% of renter households, peaking at 2.5% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103028102 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 1.75× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran above pre-pandemic norms. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103028102 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103028102 scores 3.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103028102 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
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