Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103022401 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,504 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
12103022401 is a census tract in the Bear Creek area of St. Petersburg, FL. It scores 3/10 for landlords. It is home to 3,504 residents. The severe-burden share is 42%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,560
Renter share10.6%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate10.9%
Median income$123,077
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
27
th percentile
Low
Within state
28
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7678, -82.7493 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
10.9% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,195 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 26%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 15%Grade B
- 17%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 182Total filings over 18 yrs
- 4.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.8%Peak (2011)
- 11Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 26Total filings 2020-21
- 0.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.83×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
Pulling hardest the other way is supply constraint at 1/10. Against Pinellas County at 53.4%, 65% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Running cool, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Average gross rent is $1,195, 28% below the St. Petersburg average.
Well under the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10. The filing record is not thin: 182 evictions over 18 years of observation. It sits 0.8 points below the Pinellas County average of 3.8.
The worst year on record was 2011, when 5.8% of renter households were served. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 4.1% of renter households face a filing.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 11% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 4.5/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103022401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103022401?
Census tract 12103022401 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103022401?
Median gross rent is $1,195/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103022401?
10.9% of residents in tract 12103022401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,504.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103022401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 25th, minority 26th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 12103022401 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103022401 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103022401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 182 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103022401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.08% of renter households, peaking at 5.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103022401 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.83× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103022401 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103022401 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103022401 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Holiday Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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