Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #72,575 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103022401 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,504 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
With a score of 4.6/10, tract 12103022401 in Bear Creek in St. Petersburg ranks in the Moderate tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,504 residents. That is riskier than roughly 26% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
65% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a severe level, and 42% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,195 a month against an average household income of $123,077 a year, roughly 12% of income at the averages. About 11% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 7%
Stable renters 4%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,560
Renter share10.6%
SVI overall0.39
Poverty rate10.9%
Median income$123,077
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
8
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
13
th percentile
Very Low
Within state
24
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7678, -82.7493 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
10.9% poverty · this tract
2.7
Supply constraint
$1,195 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 39
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 25%Household composition
- 26%Racial/ethnic minority
- 66%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 1%Grade A
- 15%Grade B
- 17%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 182Total filings over 18 yrs
- 4.08%Avg annual filing rate
- 5.8%Peak (2011)
- 11Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 27% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 26Total filings 2020-21
- 0.4Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.83×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
What moves this score most is tenant organizing strength at 4.5/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Pinellas County average of 4.8 and below the Florida statewide average of 4.9. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 182 eviction filings here over 18 tracked years, with about 4.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 5.8% of renter households in 2011.
During 2020 and 2021, eviction filings here ran at about 0.83x the pre-COVID monthly baseline, a little under the pre-pandemic norm.
For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103022401
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103022401?
Census tract 12103022401 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103022401?
Median gross rent is $1,195/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103022401?
10.9% of residents in tract 12103022401 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,504.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103022401?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 39th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 25th, minority 26th, housing 66th.
Q5
Is tract 12103022401 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103022401 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103022401?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 182 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103022401 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.08% of renter households, peaking at 5.8% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103022401 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.83× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103022401 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103022401 scores 3/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 2.7/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103022401 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
6
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
12103020206
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Childs Park
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
5.3
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
5.1
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
5
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
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