6 census tracts · pop 17,727 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.9/10
· range 3–5.1
Bear Creek spans 6 census tracts of St. Petersburg, FL and houses 17,727 people. It carries an Eviction Risk Score of 3.9/10, in the Lower tier. Severe burden reaches 40%. A tenant at that level absorbs no shock: one cut shift or one repair bill converts directly into arrears.
Against a St. Petersburg baseline of 33.9%, 65% of renters here cross the 30%-of-income line. The 6 tracts inside this boundary do not behave alike. Individual scores run 3 to 5.1, a 2.1-point gap wide enough that the area average misleads on any specific address. The clearest offset is eviction-process difficulty, at 2/10.
Well under the midpoint is economic stress, at 2.6/10. Filings are well documented here: 873 across 6 observed tracts.
Running cool is supply constraint, at 2.8/10. Filing activity peaked in 2016 at 7.9% of renter households. The most recent observed rate, 2.4% in 2017, is well off that peak.
Average gross rent is $1,539, 7% below the St. Petersburg average of $1,663. Among the 42 mapped neighborhoods of St. Petersburg, it ranks #16 by risk, the middle third.
At 25% renter-occupied, this is predominantly owner territory, and rental comps have to be drawn from further out. For a like-for-like read, Roser Park and Magnolia Heights score within a fraction of it. Annual rent works out to 22% of average household income of $82,952.
For a specific building, read the per-tract breakdown below rather than the 3.9 headline, because the internal range is too wide to average safely. Scores move when the ACS release, the court-record feed, or the statute ledger behind them moves.
Risk score
3.9
Lower
6 tracts · population-weighted
Bear Creek vs St. PetersburgHow this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average
Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+
Racial/ethnic minority24%ile
Hispanic + non-white share of population
Housing & transport67%ile
Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle
Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab
Court-record eviction history in Bear Creek
Aggregated across 6 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
873Total filings (sum)
2.51%Avg annual filing rate
7.9%Peak year (2016)
2.61%Latest filed (2017)
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
197Total filings 2020-21
0.5Avg monthly observed
0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
1.03×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).
Frequently asked
About Bear Creek
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for Bear Creek?
Bear Creek scores 3.9/10 (Lower tier) across 6 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.
Q2
How does Bear Creek compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Bear Creek scores 0.4 points higher than St. Petersburg overall (3.5/10). Renters spend 65% of income on rent vs 34% citywide. Average rent: $1,539 vs $1,663.
Q3
What is the average rent in Bear Creek?
Average gross rent in Bear Creek is $1,539/month (pop-weighted across 6 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q4
What percentage of Bear Creek residents are renters?
25% of Bear Creek households are renter-occupied (vs 37% in St. Petersburg). The neighborhood has 17,727 residents.
Q5
Is Bear Creek a high social-vulnerability area?
Bear Creek sits in the 55th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.
Q6
Which tracts in Bear Creek have the highest eviction risk?
The highest-risk constituent tract in Bear Creek is census tract 12103028104 (score 5.1/10). Across the 6 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 3 to 5.1, a spread of 2.1 points.
Q7
How safe is Bear Creek for landlords?
Bear Creek carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.9/10). Pop-weighted across 6 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Petersburg as a whole (3.5/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.
Q8
What is the demographic breakdown of Bear Creek?
Bear Creek has 17,765 residents. Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (83.5%), Hispanic / Latino (7.8%), Other / Multiracial (3.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.
