Neighborhood · St. Petersburg, FL

Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower

6 census tracts · pop 17,727 · pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score 3.3/10 · range 2.4–4.1

Bear Creek is a white (non-hispanic) neighborhood in St. Petersburg with 6 census tracts and a population of 17,727 residents. The neighborhood's pop-weighted eviction-risk score of 3.3/10 (Lower tier) blends state law, county-level filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty. 65% of renters here pay at least 30% of household income on rent, and 40% are severely cost-burdened (≥50% of income). Average gross rent of $1,539/month sits 7% lower than the St. Petersburg citywide average ($1,663).

Risk score

3.3

Lower

6 tracts · population-weighted

Bear Creek vs St. Petersburg How this neighborhood stacks against the citywide average

% of income on rent

64.9% +91%

St. Petersburg: 33.9%

Average gross rent

$1,539 -7%

St. Petersburg: $1,663

Average HH income

$82,952 +5%

St. Petersburg: $78,724

Poverty rate

10.6% -9%

St. Petersburg: 11.7%

Renter share

25.4% -32%

St. Petersburg: 37.2%

Peer neighborhoods

Neighborhoods with similar eviction risk

Same county, closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Geographic context

Risk heat across Bear Creek and the region

Click any tract to drill in · 6 tracts span score 2.4–4.1

Why Bear Creek scores 3.3

9 axes · pop-weighted · 1 = landlord-friendly

State political climate

legislature & governorship · Range 1.5–1.5 across tracts

1.5

Regional political climate

County-level mix · 2024 presidential margin · Range 5.0–5.0 across tracts

5.0

Local political climate

Parent city governance · Range 5.0–5.5 across tracts

5.3

Rent control risk

65% of income on rent · Range 1.5–9.6 across tracts

6.5

Eviction process difficulty

State notice requirements & court backlog · Range 1.3–3.0 across tracts

2.0

Tenant organizing strength

25% renter households · Range 4.5–8.7 across tracts

6.5

Housing court bias

County bench composition · Range 4.0–8.2 across tracts

6.5

Economic stress

10.6% below poverty line · Range 1.2–3.6 across tracts

2.6

Supply constraint

Rent-to-FMR gap & zoning friction · Range 1.0–5.8 across tracts

2.8

Risk score comparison

Bear Creek vs. parent city, state, U.S.

Eviction Risk Score (0–10 scale).

Variance across tracts

How uniformly does eviction risk play out in Bear Creek?

Left: distribution of constituent tract scores. Right: every tract as a heat square. Click any square to drill in.

Score distribution

0246810

Spread of 1.7 points from 2.4 to 4.1. Moderate variation across constituent tracts.

Tracts as heat grid

4.1 4.0 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.4

Each square = one census tract. Color tracks the same green→red ramp as the chloropleth map above.

Census tracts

6 tracts in Bear Creek

Ranked highest-risk first. Click for per-tract detail.

Tract↕	Score↕	Pop↕	% over 30% on rent↕	Average rent↕
12103028104	4.1	3,402	71%	$2,143
12103028103	4	1,900	47%	$1,117
12103028102	3.6	3,801	88%	$1,700
12103028200	3.1	2,200	12%	$1,455
12103022301	2.9	2,920	78%	$1,374
12103022401	2.4	3,504	65%	$1,195

Social Vulnerability Index

CDC SVI percentile: 55

Pop-weighted across 6 tracts. Higher = more vulnerable to disaster, displacement, and rent shocks. Source: CDC/ATSDR SVI 2022.

Socioeconomic status 51%ile

Poverty, unemployment, no-HS-diploma, housing cost burden

Household characteristics 51%ile

Single-parent HH, disability, language barriers, age 17- / 65+

Racial/ethnic minority 24%ile

Hispanic + non-white share of population

Housing & transport 67%ile

Multi-unit structures, mobile homes, crowding, no vehicle

Eviction filings · Princeton Eviction Lab

Court-record eviction history in Bear Creek

Aggregated across 6 validated constituent tracts. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households, pop-weighted.

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

873Total filings (sum)
2.51%Avg annual filing rate
7.9%Peak year (2016)
2.61%Latest filed (2017)

Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)

197Total filings 2020-21
0.5Avg monthly observed
0.5Pre-pandemic baseline
1.03×Ratio to baseline

Pandemic filings ran near baseline. Tracked under Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA).

Frequently asked

About Bear Creek

What is the eviction-risk score for Bear Creek?

Bear Creek scores 3.3/10 (Lower tier) across 6 census tracts. The pop-weighted Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income and poverty signals.

How does Bear Creek compare to St. Petersburg overall?

Bear Creek scores 0.6 points higher than St. Petersburg overall (2.7/10). Renters spend 65% of income on rent vs 34% citywide. Average rent: $1,539 vs $1,663.

What is the average rent in Bear Creek?

Average gross rent in Bear Creek is $1,539/month (pop-weighted across 6 census tracts, ACS 5-year 2023). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.

What percentage of Bear Creek residents are renters?

25% of Bear Creek households are renter-occupied (vs 37% in St. Petersburg). The neighborhood has 17,727 residents.

Is Bear Creek a high social-vulnerability area?

Bear Creek sits in the 55th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index (moderately vulnerable). The index combines poverty, unemployment, household composition, racial/ethnic minority share, and housing/transportation factors across all US census tracts.

Which tracts in Bear Creek have the highest eviction risk?

The highest-risk constituent tract in Bear Creek is census tract 12103028104 (score 4.1/10). Across the 6 tracts in this neighborhood the score ranges from 2.4 to 4.1, a spread of 1.7 points.

How safe is Bear Creek for landlords?

Bear Creek carries a lower-tier eviction-risk profile for landlords (3.3/10). Pop-weighted across 6 constituent tracts, the score blends parent-city rent-control posture, county eviction-process timelines, and tract-specific rent-to-income / poverty signals. Compared to St. Petersburg as a whole (2.7/10), this neighborhood is higher-risk.

What is the demographic breakdown of Bear Creek?

Bear Creek has 17,765 residents (White (non-Hispanic) Neighborhood). Top groups: White (non-Hispanic) (83.5%), Hispanic / Latino (7.8%), Other / Multiracial (3.8%). Source: ACS 5-year 2023, table B03002.

Nearby

Other neighborhoods near Bear Creek

3 Live Oak 2 tracts · pop 8,258 3.9 Holiday Park 3 tracts · pop 14,054 4.2 Childs Park 4 tracts · pop 10,580 2.4 Isla Del Sol 4 tracts · pop 9,229 3 Disston Heights 4 tracts · pop 16,404 4 Jungle Terrace 5 tracts · pop 15,018

Sibling neighborhoods

Other neighborhoods inside St. Petersburg

Same parent city, ranked by score similarity to Bear Creek.

3.4 Greater Woodlawn 1 tracts · pop 3,154 3.4 Euclid-St. Paul 2 tracts · pop 4,178 3.1 Central Oak Park 3 tracts · pop 8,993 3.1 Waterside 1 tracts · pop 3,918 3.5 North Kenwood 1 tracts · pop 3,168 3.5 Downtown 3 tracts · pop 6,436

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