Within neighborhood
80
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #34,278 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103028103 · Pinellas, FL · pop 1,900 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
12103028103 is a census tract in the Bear Creek area of South Pasadena, FL. It scores 4.9/10 for landlords. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.5/10.
Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 29%
Stable renters 32%
Owners 39%
Tract context
Occupied units1,241
Renter share61.2%
SVI overall0.78
Poverty rate9.7%
Median income$48,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
90
th percentile
Very High
Within state
78
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7506, -82.7367 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 4.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
9.7% poverty · this tract
2.4
Supply constraint
$1,117 rent vs county FMR
1.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
8.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 78
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 71%Socioeconomic
- 56%Household composition
- 28%Racial/ethnic minority
- 94%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 87Total filings over 18 yrs
- 1.28%Avg annual filing rate
- 4.0%Peak (2001)
- 5Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 29% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 23Total filings 2020-21
- 0.3Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.4Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.85×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
Average gross rent is $1,117, 38% below the South Pasadena average. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10.
The severe-burden share is 23%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.7/10.
Cost burden runs 47% here against 53.4% across Pinellas County. Against the Pinellas County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.1 points. Court records carry 87 eviction filings across 18 observed years.
Filings peaked in 2001 at 4.0% of renter households. In a typical year about 1.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 59% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
Social vulnerability reads 8/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Statewide the FL average is 4.1, so this tract runs 0.8 points hotter.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103028103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103028103?
Census tract 12103028103 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103028103?
Median gross rent is $1,117/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103028103?
9.7% of residents in tract 12103028103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,900.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103028103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 78th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 71th, household 56th, minority 28th, housing 94th.
Q5
Is tract 12103028103 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103028103 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103028103?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 87 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103028103 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.28% of renter households, peaking at 4.0% in 2001. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103028103 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.85× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103028103 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103028103 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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