Within neighborhood
20
th percentile
Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Lower , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103022301 · Pinellas, FL · pop 2,920 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi
Tract 12103022301 sits in the Bear Creek area of St. Petersburg, FL, carrying an eviction-risk score of 3/10. It is home to 2,920 residents. Against Pinellas County at 53.4%, 78% of renters here are cost-burdened.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 17%
Stable renters 5%
Owners 78%
Tract context
Occupied units1,266
Renter share22.0%
SVI overall0.47
Poverty rate5.0%
Median income$76,739
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
1
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
21
th percentile
Low
Within state
28
th percentile
Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7668, -82.7233 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
5.0% poverty · this tract
1.2
Supply constraint
$1,374 rent vs county FMR
1.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
1.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
3.0
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
4.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 47
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 58%Socioeconomic
- 34%Household composition
- 39%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 2%Grade B
- 26%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 257Total filings over 18 yrs
- 4.72%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.9%Peak (2012)
- 8Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 60% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 50Total filings 2020-21
- 0.7Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.8Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.88×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
Severe burden reaches 32%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1.2/10.
On the softer side, state political climate reads 1.5/10. Running cool, rent-regulation exposure reads 1.5/10.
Average gross rent is $1,374, 17% below the St. Petersburg average. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 257 filings here across 18 tracked years. It sits 0.8 points below the Pinellas County average of 3.8.
Filings peaked in 2012 at 7.9% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground C ("Definitely Declining"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 4.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 20% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103022301
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103022301?
Census tract 12103022301 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103022301?
Median gross rent is $1,374/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 78% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103022301?
5.0% of residents in tract 12103022301 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,920.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103022301?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 47th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 58th, household 34th, minority 39th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 12103022301 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103022301 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103022301?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 257 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103022301 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 4.72% of renter households, peaking at 7.9% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103022301 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.88× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103022301 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103022301 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103022301 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · FL
12103020206
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bridgewater Place
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Palmetto Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Bartlett Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Childs Park
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Thirteenth Street Heights
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Riviera Bay
4.9
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · FL
Edge District
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Related