Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #31,049 of 84,120 nationally
Bear Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , St. Petersburg
Tract 12103028104 · Pinellas, FL · pop 3,402 · neighborhood within 1.1 mi
12103028104 is a census tract in the Bear Creek area of South Pasadena, FL. It scores 5.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 3,402. 58% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 23%
Stable renters 10%
Owners 67%
Tract context
Occupied units1,977
Renter share32.6%
SVI overall0.79
Poverty rate12.7%
Median income$55,899
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
95
th percentile
Very High
Within state
81
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across St. Petersburg and the region
Centroid at 27.7525, -82.7449 · click any tract to drill in
Why Bear Creek scores 5.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from St. Petersburg
5.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.0
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
12.7% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$2,143 rent vs county FMR
5.8
Rent control risk
Inherited from St. Petersburg
9.5
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.4
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from St. Petersburg
8.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from St. Petersburg
8.0
How Bear Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 79
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 57%Socioeconomic
- 72%Household composition
- 19%Racial/ethnic minority
- 99%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: B: Still Desirable
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade B meant middle-class areas with mortgage access. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 134Total filings over 18 yrs
- 1.09%Avg annual filing rate
- 3.0%Peak (2014)
- 5Filings in 2017 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 67% over the past 18 months.
Pandemic-era tracking (2020–2021)
- 39Total filings 2020-21
- 0.5Avg monthly (observed)
- 0.7Pre-pandemic baseline
- 0.79×Ratio to baseline
Pandemic filings ran below baseline. Eviction Lab tracked Tacoma, WA as part of its 34-metro Eviction Tracking System.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Bear Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Bear Creek
71% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly above the Pinellas County average of 53.4%. The score leans hardest on rent-regulation exposure at 9.5/10.
Set annual rent against average income of $55,899 and the ratio lands at 46%, above the conventional 30% ceiling. Sitting well above the midpoint, tenant-organizing strength reads 8.7/10.
Well under the midpoint, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.4/10. Against the Pinellas County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 1.3 points. At $2,143 a month, rents run 20% over what the rest of South Pasadena commands.
The filing record is not thin: 134 evictions over 18 years of observation. The worst year on record was 2014, when 3.0% of renter households were served.
In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 1.1% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 63% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 8.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 12103028104
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12103028104?
Census tract 12103028104 in the Bear Creek neighborhood scores 5.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 12103028104?
Median gross rent is $2,143/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 71% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 12103028104?
12.7% of residents in tract 12103028104 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,402.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 12103028104?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 79th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 57th, household 72th, minority 19th, housing 99th.
Q5
Is tract 12103028104 considered part of Bear Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 12103028104 fall within Bear Creek (neighborhood centroid within 1.1 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12103028104?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 134 eviction filings across 18 validated years in tract 12103028104 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.09% of renter households, peaking at 3.0% in 2014. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
Did eviction filings in tract 12103028104 drop during COVID?
Pandemic-era filings ran 0.79× the pre-COVID monthly baseline. Filings ran modestly below normal. Tracked by the Eviction Lab Eviction Tracking System (Tacoma, WA), 2020-2021.
Q8
How does tract 12103028104 compare to St. Petersburg overall?
Tract 12103028104 scores 5.1/10, higher than the parent city of St. Petersburg at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from St. Petersburg eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 12103028104 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of B. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in St. Petersburg
Top eight tracts in St. Petersburg ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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