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Census Tract · Ranked #42,813 of 84,120 nationally

Palmer Ranch Eviction Risk: Moderate

Tract 12115002007 · Sarasota, FL · pop 2,287 · 68% of tract blocks fall in Palmer Ranch

Census tract 12115002007 covers part of Palmer Ranch, FL, and scores 4.4/10 on landlord eviction risk. It is home to 2,287 residents. 40% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.

Risk score
4.4
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 15% Stable renters 10% Owners 75%
Tract context
Occupied units1,477
Renter share25.2%
SVI overall0.33
Poverty rate14.0%
Median income$65,069

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within parent city
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 6 tracts In Palmer Ranch
Very High
Within county
80 th percentile
Rank, 80th percentileLowHigh
#25 of 122 tracts In Sarasota
High
Within state
65 th percentile
Rank, 65th percentileLowHigh
#1,779 of 5,122 tracts In Florida
Elevated
National
49 th percentile
Rank, 49th percentileLowHigh
#42,813 of 84,120 tracts In U.S.
Moderate
Geographic context

Risk heat across Palmer Ranch and the region

Centroid at 27.2184, -82.4789 · click any tract to drill in

Why Palmer Ranch scores 4.4

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Palmer Ranch
5.0
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
4.5
State political climate
Florida legislature & governorship
1.5
Economic stress
14.0% poverty · this tract
3.5
Supply constraint
$1,611 rent vs county FMR
3.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Palmer Ranch
6.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
1.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Palmer Ranch
5.7
Housing court bias
Inherited from Palmer Ranch
4.8

How Palmer Ranch compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Palmer Ranch risk score vs. parent city / county / state4.4This tracttract 0020073.5Palmer Ranchparent city3.8Countyavg tract in county4.1Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 33

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 25Total filings over 5 yrs
  • 1.68%Avg annual filing rate
  • 2.2%Peak (2018)
  • 7Filings in 2018 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2002 to 2018
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 12115002007
Filings climbed 17% over the past 5 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Palmer Ranch

Pulling hardest the other way is state political climate at 1.5/10. Running cool, eviction-process difficulty reads 1.9/10. Against Sarasota County at 50.3%, 58% of renters here are cost-burdened.

The filing record is not thin: 25 evictions over 5 years of observation. Against the Sarasota County average of 3.8, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 0.6 points. Average gross rent is $1,611, 10% below the Palmer Ranch average.

The worst year on record was 2018, when 2.2% of renter households were served. In a typical year about 1.7% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 49% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

The legal-climate inputs (statute speed, court posture, rent-regulation exposure) come from Palmer Ranch as a whole. Only the economic and supply signals are measured inside this tract. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 3.9/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the least pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.

Frequently asked

About tract 12115002007

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 12115002007?

Census tract 12115002007 in Palmer Ranch scores 4.4/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 12115002007?

Median gross rent is $1,611/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 58% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 12115002007?

14.0% of residents in tract 12115002007 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,287.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 12115002007?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 33th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 44th, household 24th, minority 6th, housing 45th.
Q5

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 12115002007?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 25 eviction filings across 5 validated years in tract 12115002007 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 1.68% of renter households, peaking at 2.2% in 2018. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q6

How does tract 12115002007 compare to Palmer Ranch overall?

Tract 12115002007 scores 4.4/10, higher than the parent city of Palmer Ranch at 3.5/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Palmer Ranch; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Palmer Ranch

Top eight tracts in Palmer Ranch ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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