O'Keeffe Eviction Risk: High , Chicago

The main counterweight is supply constraint at 1/10. The severe-burden share is 24%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment. 78% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby.

Against the Cook County average of 6.1, this tract reads riskier for landlords by 2.0 points. At $985 a month, rents run 32% under what the rest of Chicago commands.

Sitting well above the midpoint, local political climate reads 8.5/10. The poverty rate is 27%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment.

Housing insecurity runs 28.1% against 14.2% nationally. On the high side, tenant-organizing strength reads 8/10. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.6% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 2,098 filings here across 15 tracked years. The worst year on record was 2002, when 13.6% of renter households were served.

In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground B ("Still Desirable"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today. In a typical year about 10.3% of renter households face a filing. That is riskier than roughly 91% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.