Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #48,083 of 84,120 nationally
Lower Beaver Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines
Tract 19153000704 · Polk County, IA · pop 3,161 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 19153000704 covers the Lower Beaver neighborhood of Des Moines, home to 3,161 residents. For landlords it grades 3.9/10, a lower reading. It lands near the 11th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.
11% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a modest level, and 7% are severely burdened at 50% or more. The typical renter pays about $1,250 a month while the average household earns $73,550 a year, roughly 20% of income at the averages. Renters make up 29% of occupied homes.
Risk score
3.6
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 3%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 71%
Tract context
Occupied units1,407
Renter share29.2%
SVI overall0.50
Poverty rate9.0%
Median income$73,550
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
29
th percentile
Low
Within county
61
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
66
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.6373, -93.6719 · click any tract to drill in
Why Lower Beaver scores 3.6
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
9.0% poverty · this tract
2.2
Supply constraint
$1,250 rent vs county FMR
5.3
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Lower Beaver compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 50
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 36%Socioeconomic
- 74%Household composition
- 60%Racial/ethnic minority
- 43%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: C: Definitely Declining
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade C meant mixed-race / working-class neighborhoods rated as risky. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 0%Grade A
- 5%Grade B
- 43%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 406Total filings over 10 yrs
- 12.36%Avg annual filing rate
- 24.0%Peak (2012)
- 49Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 158% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Lower Beaver. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 10.3%Housing insecurity
- 6.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.6%Food insecurity
- 9.7%SNAP enrollment
- 6.8%Transit barriers
- 7.4%No health insurance
- 16.9%Frequent mental distress
- 26.7%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Lower Beaver
The heaviest input here is supply constraint at 5.3/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Polk County average of 5.0 and below the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 406 eviction filings here over 10 tracked years, with about 12.4% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 24.0% of renter households in 2012.
The tract is racially mixed and ranks around the 50th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.
For a landlord, this is among the easier places to operate: faster process, lighter tenant-protection overhead, and shorter typical cases.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153000704
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153000704?
Census tract 19153000704 in the Lower Beaver neighborhood scores 3.6/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153000704?
Median gross rent is $1,250/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 11% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153000704?
9.0% of residents in tract 19153000704 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,161.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153000704?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 50th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 36th, household 74th, minority 60th, housing 43th.
Q5
Is tract 19153000704 considered part of Lower Beaver?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153000704 fall within Lower Beaver (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153000704?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 406 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153000704 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 12.36% of renter households, peaking at 24.0% in 2012. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153000704 struggle to pay rent?
About 10.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 6.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153000704 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153000704 scores 3.6/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153000704 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of C. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
King Irving
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
19153000101
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Drake Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Sherman Hill
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Prospect Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
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