Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #73,892 of 84,120 nationally
Waterbury Eviction Risk: Lower , Des Moines
Tract 19153003002 · Polk County, IA · pop 3,888 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 3.9/10, tract 19153003002 in the Waterbury area of Des Moines ranks in the Lower tier for landlord eviction risk. The tract is home to 3,888 residents. That is riskier than roughly 11% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.
About 22% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a modest level, and 0% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $940 monthly, set against $153,750 in average yearly household income, roughly 7% of income at the averages. About 11% of occupied units are renter-occupied.
Risk score
2
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units1,668
Renter share11.1%
SVI overall0.05
Poverty rate2.0%
Median income$153,750
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
0
th percentile
Very Low
Within county
23
th percentile
Low
Within state
12
th percentile
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5881, -93.6909 · click any tract to drill in
Why Waterbury scores 2
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
2.0% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$940 rent vs county FMR
2.7
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Waterbury compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 5
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 1%Socioeconomic
- 14%Household composition
- 24%Racial/ethnic minority
- 27%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 79%Grade A
- 14%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 148Total filings over 10 yrs
- 5.45%Avg annual filing rate
- 8.2%Peak (2006)
- 14Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings dropped 36% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 4.8%Housing insecurity
- 3.4%Utility-shutoff threat
- 4.7%Food insecurity
- 3.3%SNAP enrollment
- 3.3%Transit barriers
- 3.2%No health insurance
- 12.8%Frequent mental distress
- 18.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Waterbury
The score leans hardest on tenant organizing strength at $1/10. That part comes from the wider legal climate rather than the tract itself. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.
Set against its neighbors, this tract scores below the Polk County average of 5.0 and below the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.
In CDC survey modeling, about 4.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 3.4% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.
HOLC surveyors mapped this tract in the 1930s with a dominant grade of A ("Best"), above the redlined D tier. The grading still shaped decades of lending and development in the surrounding area.
For a landlord, this is among the easier places to operate: faster process, lighter tenant-protection overhead, and shorter typical cases.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153003002
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153003002?
Census tract 19153003002 in the Waterbury neighborhood scores 2/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153003002?
Median gross rent is $940/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 22% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153003002?
2.0% of residents in tract 19153003002 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,888.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153003002?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 5th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 1th, household 14th, minority 24th, housing 27th.
Q5
Is tract 19153003002 considered part of Waterbury?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153003002 fall within Waterbury (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153003002?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 148 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153003002 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 5.45% of renter households, peaking at 8.2% in 2006. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153003002 struggle to pay rent?
About 4.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.4% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153003002 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153003002 scores 2/10, lower than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153003002 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
King Irving
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
5.8
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
19153000101
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Drake Park
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Sherman Hill
5.5
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · IA
Prospect Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol Park
5.4
/ 10 · Moderate
Related