Within neighborhood
0
th percentile
Very Low
Neighborhood · Ranked #47,371 of 84,120 nationally
Watrous South Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153004502 · Polk County, IA · pop 2,485 · neighborhood within 0.5 mi
19153004502 is a census tract in the Watrous South area of Des Moines, IA. It scores 4.1/10 for landlords. Population here is 2,485. The main counterweight is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 20%
Stable renters 26%
Owners 54%
Tract context
Occupied units1,123
Renter share45.9%
SVI overall0.69
Poverty rate12.9%
Median income$66,875
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
41
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
59
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
71
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5446, -93.6390 · click any tract to drill in
Why Watrous South scores 4.1
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
12.9% poverty · this tract
3.2
Supply constraint
$985 rent vs county FMR
3.1
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Watrous South compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 69
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 65%Socioeconomic
- 73%Household composition
- 36%Racial/ethnic minority
- 67%Housing & transportation
Historical context · 1930s redlining
HOLC grade: A: Best
This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade A meant wealthy, predominantly white neighborhoods favored for lending. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.
- 2%Grade A
- 0%Grade B
- 0%Grade C
- 0%Grade D · redlined
Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 630Total filings over 10 yrs
- 11.64%Avg annual filing rate
- 30.2%Peak (2015)
- 159Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings climbed 536% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Watrous South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 13.3%Housing insecurity
- 9.0%Utility-shutoff threat
- 17.0%Food insecurity
- 15.1%SNAP enrollment
- 9.1%Transit barriers
- 9.3%No health insurance
- 19.7%Frequent mental distress
- 32.3%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Watrous South
Sitting well above the midpoint, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. The severe-burden share is 17%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.3/10. Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 630 filings here across 10 tracked years. At $985 a month, rents run 10% under what the rest of Des Moines commands.
Filings peaked in 2015 at 30.2% of renter households. In the 1930s the federal Home Owners' Loan Corporation graded this ground A ("Best"). Redlining cut off mortgage credit to whole blocks for decades, and the areas graded D still carry measurably lower ownership and higher rent burden today.
In a typical year about 11.6% of renter households face a filing. Nationally it ranks #47,371 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. CDC social-vulnerability scoring puts the tract at 7.2/10.
Against average income of $66,875, annual rent is just 18%.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153004502
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004502?
Census tract 19153004502 in the Watrous South neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153004502?
Median gross rent is $985/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 44% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004502?
12.9% of residents in tract 19153004502 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 2,485.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004502?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 69th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 65th, household 73th, minority 36th, housing 67th.
Q5
Is tract 19153004502 considered part of Watrous South?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004502 fall within Watrous South (neighborhood centroid within 0.5 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004502?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 630 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004502 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 11.64% of renter households, peaking at 30.2% in 2015. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153004502 struggle to pay rent?
About 13.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 9.0% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153004502 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153004502 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9
Was tract 19153004502 historically redlined?
Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of A. 0% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
Martin Luther King Jr. Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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Highland Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Avon Lake
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Oak Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Indianola Hills
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Prospect Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Drake Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
South Central DSM
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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