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Neighborhood · Ranked #29,578 of 84,120 nationally

Watrous South Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153004701 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,142 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi

Here is how census tract 19153004701, in Watrous South in Des Moines eviction risk, looks to a landlord: a 5.3/10 eviction-risk score (Moderate tier) across a population of 4,142. On the national scale it ranks #42,239 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty.

Rent eats 30% or more of income for 65% of renter households, a severe level, and 38% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average rent runs $1,142 a month against an average household income of $54,600 a year, roughly 25% of income at the averages. About 32% of occupied units are renter-occupied.

Risk score
4.7
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 21% Stable renters 11% Owners 68%
Tract context
Occupied units1,882
Renter share31.6%
SVI overall0.73
Poverty rate20.0%
Median income$54,600

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
100 th percentile
Rank, 100th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 3 tracts In Watrous South
Very High
Within parent city
76 th percentile
Rank, 76th percentileLowHigh
#15 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
High
Within county
88 th percentile
Rank, 88th percentileLowHigh
#14 of 112 tracts In Polk County
High
Within state
89 th percentile
Rank, 89th percentileLowHigh
#102 of 896 tracts In Iowa
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5190, -93.6492 · click any tract to drill in

Why Watrous South scores 4.7

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
20.0% poverty · this tract
5.0
Supply constraint
$1,142 rent vs county FMR
4.4
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Watrous South compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Watrous South risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.74.7This tracttract 004701Des Moines: 2.62.6Des Moinesparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.33.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 73

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 795Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 14.14%Avg annual filing rate
  • 17.0%Peak (2008)
  • 69Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 191530047012006: 118 filings (15.92/100 renter HHs)2007: 82 filings (11.06/100 renter HHs)2008: 126 filings (17.00/100 renter HHs)2009: 78 filings (10.52/100 renter HHs)2010: 55 filings (14.59/100 renter HHs)2011: 65 filings (13.98/100 renter HHs)2012: 53 filings (11.40/100 renter HHs)2013: 72 filings (15.48/100 renter HHs)2014: 77 filings (16.56/100 renter HHs)2015: 69 filings (14.84/100 renter HHs)
Filings dropped 42% over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Watrous South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Watrous South

The heaviest input here is economic stress at $1/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 73rd percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 795 eviction filings here over 10 tracked years, with about 14.1% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 17.0% of renter households in 2008.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153004701

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004701?

Census tract 19153004701 in the Watrous South neighborhood scores 4.7/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153004701?

Median gross rent is $1,142/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 65% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004701?

20.0% of residents in tract 19153004701 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,142.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004701?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 73th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 63th, household 88th, minority 41th, housing 68th.
Q5

Is tract 19153004701 considered part of Watrous South?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004701 fall within Watrous South (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004701?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 795 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004701 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 14.14% of renter households, peaking at 17.0% in 2008. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153004701 struggle to pay rent?

About 17.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 11.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153004701 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153004701 scores 4.7/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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