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Neighborhood · Ranked #39,389 of 84,120 nationally

Watrous South Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153004603 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,100 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi

Census tract 19153004603 runs through the Watrous South neighborhood of Des Moines. With 4,100 residents, it scores 5.1/10 for landlords. That is riskier than roughly 43% of the 84,120 US census tracts we score.

About 47% of renters carry a rent burden of 30% of income or higher, a severe level, and 9% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,078 monthly, set against $71,000 in average yearly household income, roughly 18% of income at the averages. Renters make up 23% of occupied homes.

Risk score
4.1
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11% Stable renters 12% Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,510
Renter share23.2%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate14.8%
Median income$71,000

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#2 of 3 tracts In Watrous South
Moderate
Within parent city
48 th percentile
Rank, 48th percentileLowHigh
#32 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
Moderate
Within county
73 th percentile
Rank, 73rd percentileLowHigh
#31 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Elevated
Within state
78 th percentile
Rank, 78th percentileLowHigh
#196 of 896 tracts In Iowa
High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5337, -93.6354 · click any tract to drill in

Why Watrous South scores 4.1

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
14.8% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,078 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Watrous South compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Watrous South risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.14.1This tracttract 004603Des Moines: 2.62.6Des Moinesparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.33.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 74

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 196Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 7.26%Avg annual filing rate
  • 7.8%Peak (2013)
  • 22Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 191530046032006: 22 filings (10.63/100 renter HHs)2007: 20 filings (9.66/100 renter HHs)2008: 19 filings (9.18/100 renter HHs)2009: 17 filings (8.21/100 renter HHs)2010: 21 filings (7.05/100 renter HHs)2011: 12 filings (3.45/100 renter HHs)2012: 17 filings (4.89/100 renter HHs)2013: 27 filings (7.76/100 renter HHs)2014: 19 filings (5.46/100 renter HHs)2015: 22 filings (6.32/100 renter HHs)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts

Census tracts with similar eviction risk

Within Watrous South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.

CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Watrous South

What moves this score most is supply constraint at 3.9/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the riskier side for landlords.

Princeton's Eviction Lab logged 196 eviction filings here over 10 tracked years, with about 7.3% of renter households facing a filing in a typical year. Filings peaked at 7.8% of renter households in 2013.

The tract is predominantly White and ranks around the 74th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. That is a middle-of-the-pack reading for social vulnerability.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153004603

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004603?

Census tract 19153004603 in the Watrous South neighborhood scores 4.1/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153004603?

Median gross rent is $1,078/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004603?

14.8% of residents in tract 19153004603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,100.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004603?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 97th, minority 51th, housing 65th.
Q5

Is tract 19153004603 considered part of Watrous South?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004603 fall within Watrous South (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004603?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 196 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004603 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.26% of renter households, peaking at 7.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153004603 struggle to pay rent?

About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153004603 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153004603 scores 4.1/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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