Within neighborhood
50
th percentile
Moderate
Neighborhood · Ranked #44,239 of 84,120 nationally
Watrous South Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines
Tract 19153004603 · Polk County, IA · pop 4,100 · neighborhood within 0.3 mi
Census tract 19153004603 covers part of the Watrous South area of Des Moines, IA, and scores 4.3/10 on landlord eviction risk. Pulling hardest the other way is rent-regulation exposure at 1/10.
Risk score
4.3
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 11%
Stable renters 12%
Owners 77%
Tract context
Occupied units1,510
Renter share23.2%
SVI overall0.74
Poverty rate14.8%
Median income$71,000
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
48
th percentile
Moderate
Within county
66
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
76
th percentile
High
Geographic context
Risk heat across Des Moines and the region
Centroid at 41.5337, -93.6354 · click any tract to drill in
Why Watrous South scores 4.3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
14.8% poverty · this tract
3.7
Supply constraint
$1,078 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5
How Watrous South compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 74
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 52%Socioeconomic
- 97%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 65%Housing & transportation
Eviction filings
Court-record eviction history
Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1
Historic baseline (2000–2018)
- 196Total filings over 10 yrs
- 7.26%Avg annual filing rate
- 7.8%Peak (2013)
- 22Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings stayed roughly flat over the past 10 months.
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Watrous South. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 12.9%Housing insecurity
- 8.6%Utility-shutoff threat
- 16.6%Food insecurity
- 14.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.6%Transit barriers
- 10.0%No health insurance
- 18.8%Frequent mental distress
- 32.4%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Watrous South
On the high side, court filing pressure reads 8.2/10. Well under the midpoint, state political climate reads 2.3/10.
Against Polk County at 42.0%, 47% of renters here are cost-burdened. Court records carry 196 eviction filings across 10 observed years.
9% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears. Filings peaked in 2013 at 7.8% of renter households.
In a typical year about 7.3% of renter households face a filing. On the national scale it lands near the 47th percentile of the 84,120 tracts scored. At 23% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 7.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
It tracks the Polk County average of 3.8 closely. Average gross rent is $1,078, close to the Des Moines average.
All figures here are ACS 5-year estimates for this tract, refreshed as the underlying releases land.
Frequently asked
About tract 19153004603
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153004603?
Census tract 19153004603 in the Watrous South neighborhood scores 4.3/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 19153004603?
Median gross rent is $1,078/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 47% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 19153004603?
14.8% of residents in tract 19153004603 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 4,100.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 19153004603?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 74th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 52th, household 97th, minority 51th, housing 65th.
Q5
Is tract 19153004603 considered part of Watrous South?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153004603 fall within Watrous South (neighborhood centroid within 0.3 miles, OSM data).
Q6
How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153004603?
Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 196 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153004603 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 7.26% of renter households, peaking at 7.8% in 2013. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7
What share of households in tract 19153004603 struggle to pay rent?
About 12.9% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.6% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8
How does tract 19153004603 compare to Des Moines overall?
Tract 19153004603 scores 4.3/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 3.4/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines
Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · IA
King Irving
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Pioneer Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Western Gateway
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Kirkwood Glen
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Mondamin Presidential
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Capitol East
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Garton West
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
Tract · IA
Union Park
4.8
/ 10 · Moderate
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