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Neighborhood · Ranked #26,446 of 84,120 nationally

Capitol East Eviction Risk: Moderate , Des Moines

Tract 19153005200 · Polk County, IA · pop 3,153 · neighborhood within 0.7 mi

Census tract 19153005200 covers Capitol East in Des Moines, home to 3,153 residents. For landlords it grades 4.7/10, a moderate reading. It lands near the 29th percentile nationally for landlord eviction risk.

25% of renter households here spend at least 30% of income on rent, a moderate level, and 15% are severely burdened at 50% or more. Average gross rent is $1,086 monthly, set against $54,535 in average yearly household income, roughly 24% of income at the averages. Renters make up 65% of occupied homes, a renter-majority tract.

Risk score
4.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 16% Stable renters 49% Owners 35%
Tract context
Occupied units1,172
Renter share65.4%
SVI overall0.95
Poverty rate22.6%
Median income$54,535

Percentile rank

Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
50 th percentile
Rank, 50th percentileLowHigh
#1 of 1 tracts In Capitol East
Moderate
Within parent city
83 th percentile
Rank, 83rd percentileLowHigh
#11 of 60 tracts In Des Moines
High
Within county
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#10 of 112 tracts In Polk County
Very High
Within state
92 th percentile
Rank, 92nd percentileLowHigh
#77 of 896 tracts In Iowa
Very High
Geographic context

Risk heat across Des Moines and the region

Centroid at 41.5844, -93.5919 · click any tract to drill in

Why Capitol East scores 4.9

9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Des Moines
4.5
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
5.8
State political climate
Iowa legislature & governorship
2.3
Economic stress
22.6% poverty · this tract
5.7
Supply constraint
$1,086 rent vs county FMR
3.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Des Moines
1.0
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
2.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Des Moines
3.0
Housing court bias
Inherited from Des Moines
2.5

How Capitol East compares

Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
Capitol East risk score vs. parent city / county / stateThis tract: 4.94.9This tracttract 005200Des Moines: 2.62.6Des Moinesparent cityCounty: 3.23.2Countyavg tract in countyState: 3.33.3Stateavg tract in state
CDC Social Vulnerability Index

SVI percentile: 95

CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.

Historical context · 1930s redlining

HOLC grade: D: Hazardous (Redlined)

This tract sits within an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s. Grade D meant Black, immigrant, and poor neighborhoods systematically denied mortgage credit. These designations suppressed minority homeownership for generations and remain a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings and rent burden.

Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), 1935-1940 HOLC residential security maps, aggregated to 2020 census tracts by area share. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eviction filings

Court-record eviction history

Court-validated eviction filings collected from county clerks and consolidated by the Eviction Lab at Princeton University. Filing rate is filings per 100 renter households.1

Historic baseline (2000–2018)

  • 860Total filings over 10 yrs
  • 15.62%Avg annual filing rate
  • 20.4%Peak (2011)
  • 109Filings in 2015 (latest validated)
Filings by year 2006 to 2015
Year-by-year eviction filings in tract 191530052002006: 74 filings (14.48/100 renter HHs)2007: 68 filings (13.31/100 renter HHs)2008: 86 filings (16.83/100 renter HHs)2009: 75 filings (14.68/100 renter HHs)2010: 59 filings (10.73/100 renter HHs)2011: 118 filings (20.42/100 renter HHs)2012: 86 filings (14.88/100 renter HHs)2013: 83 filings (14.36/100 renter HHs)2014: 102 filings (17.65/100 renter HHs)2015: 109 filings (18.86/100 renter HHs)
Filings climbed 47% over the past 10 months.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress

Eviction-adjacent indicators

Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.

Analysis

What drives eviction risk in Capitol East

The score leans hardest on economic stress at 5.7/10. That part is specific to this tract, computed from its own rent, income, and poverty figures. Statewide and court-level factors such as eviction-process speed and rent-control exposure are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk, while the economic and supply signals are measured at the tract level.

Set against its neighbors, this tract scores about the same as the Polk County average of 5.0 and above the Iowa statewide average of 4.3. Within its own county it reads on the safer side for landlords.

The tract is White and Hispanic or Latino and ranks around the 95th percentile nationally on the CDC Social Vulnerability Index, a measure of how exposed residents are to housing and economic shocks. High vulnerability tends to track with higher eviction-filing rates when rents climb.

In CDC survey modeling, about 19.8% of adults here said they could not pay rent or mortgage at some point in the past year, and 12.7% faced a utility shutoff threat, a common early warning before a filing.

For a landlord, conditions here are middle-of-the-road. Standard screening and prompt, documented notices usually keep cases short.

Frequently asked

About tract 19153005200

Q1

What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 19153005200?

Census tract 19153005200 in the Capitol East neighborhood scores 4.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2

What is the average rent in tract 19153005200?

Median gross rent is $1,086/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 25% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3

What is the poverty rate in tract 19153005200?

22.6% of residents in tract 19153005200 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 3,153.
Q4

How socially vulnerable is tract 19153005200?

CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 95th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 94th, household 93th, minority 70th, housing 83th.
Q5

Is tract 19153005200 considered part of Capitol East?

Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 19153005200 fall within Capitol East (neighborhood centroid within 0.7 miles, OSM data).
Q6

How many evictions are filed each year in tract 19153005200?

Princeton Eviction Lab recorded 860 eviction filings across 10 validated years in tract 19153005200 (2000-2018). The average annual filing rate is 15.62% of renter households, peaking at 20.4% in 2011. Source: Eviction Lab tract-validated 2024 release.
Q7

What share of households in tract 19153005200 struggle to pay rent?

About 19.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 12.7% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q8

How does tract 19153005200 compare to Des Moines overall?

Tract 19153005200 scores 4.9/10, higher than the parent city of Des Moines at 2.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Des Moines eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Q9

Was tract 19153005200 historically redlined?

Yes. This tract sits inside an area graded by the Home Owners' Loan Corporation in the 1930s, with a dominant grade of D. 81% of the tract's area was rated D ("Hazardous"), the redlined tier. HOLC redlining systematically denied mortgage credit to Black, immigrant, and working-class neighborhoods and remains a documented predictor of present-day eviction filings, rent burden, and homeownership gaps. Source: Mapping Inequality (americanpanorama.org), Robert K. Nelson et al.
Sibling tracts

Highest-risk tracts in Des Moines

Top eight tracts in Des Moines ranked by composite eviction-risk score.

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