Within neighborhood
100
th percentile
Very High
Neighborhood · Ranked #19,618 of 84,120 nationally
Sycamore Creek Eviction Risk: Moderate , Aspen Hill
Tract 24031703202 · Montgomery County, MD · pop 6,492 · neighborhood within 0.2 mi
With a score of 5.9/10, tract 24031703202 in the Sycamore Creek area of Aspen Hill, MD reads moderate for landlord eviction risk. Population here is 6,492. 41% are severely burdened past the 50% mark. That cohort absorbs no shock: one repair bill or one cut shift converts straight into arrears.
Risk score
5.9
Moderate
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 6%
Stable renters 9%
Owners 85%
Tract context
Occupied units2,041
Renter share15.6%
SVI overall0.53
Poverty rate5.4%
Median income$162,067
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
22
th percentile
Low
Within county
47
th percentile
Moderate
Within state
61
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Aspen Hill and the region
Centroid at 39.0952, -77.0938 · click any tract to drill in
Why Sycamore Creek scores 5.9
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.2
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
8.0
State political climate
Maryland legislature & governorship
5.7
Economic stress
5.4% poverty · this tract
1.3
Supply constraint
$3,501 rent vs county FMR
10.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Aspen Hill
8.4
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.5
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Aspen Hill
7.5
Housing court bias
Inherited from Aspen Hill
6.5
How Sycamore Creek compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 53
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 24%Socioeconomic
- 95%Household composition
- 51%Racial/ethnic minority
- 47%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Sycamore Creek. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 7.8%Housing insecurity
- 4.5%Utility-shutoff threat
- 8.5%Food insecurity
- 5.3%SNAP enrollment
- 4.7%Transit barriers
- 6.8%No health insurance
- 11.4%Frequent mental distress
- 22.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Sycamore Creek
What pushes it up most is supply constraint at 10/10. At $3,501 a month, rents run 83% over what the rest of Aspen Hill commands.
The voucher gap is 51.3%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears. Running hot, court filing pressure reads 9.8/10. On the softer side, economic stress reads 1.3/10.
SNAP participation runs 5.3% against 15.2% nationally. 41% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, lower than the Montgomery County average of 46.7%. Food insecurity runs 8.5% against 17.8% nationally.
Nationally it ranks #19,618 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. Only 16% of units are renter-occupied. Rental comparables are thin; price a renewal off the nearest genuine rental sub-market rather than off surrounding sale prices.
Social vulnerability reads 5.7/10 on the CDC index, a measure of exposure to housing and economic shocks. Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.
Poverty sits at 5%, low enough that arrears here usually signal a specific shock rather than a structural income gap. It tracks the Montgomery County average of 6.0 closely.
Annual rent works out to 26% of average household income of $162,067.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 24031703202
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 24031703202?
Census tract 24031703202 in the Sycamore Creek neighborhood scores 5.9/10 (Moderate tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 24031703202?
Median gross rent is $3,501/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 41% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 24031703202?
5.4% of residents in tract 24031703202 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 6,492.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 24031703202?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 53th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 24th, household 95th, minority 51th, housing 47th.
Q5
Is tract 24031703202 considered part of Sycamore Creek?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 24031703202 fall within Sycamore Creek (neighborhood centroid within 0.2 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 24031703202 struggle to pay rent?
About 7.8% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 4.5% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 24031703202 compare to Aspen Hill overall?
Tract 24031703202 scores 5.9/10, lower than the parent city of Aspen Hill at 6.6/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Aspen Hill eviction risk; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Aspen Hill
Top eight tracts in Aspen Hill ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
Tract · MD
English Manor
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Harmony Hills
8
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Willson Hills
7.7
/ 10 · High
Tract · MD
Willson Hills
6.9
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Aspen Hill Park
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Wheaton Woods
6.4
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Aspen Knolls
6.1
/ 10 · Elevated
Tract · MD
Allanwood
5.7
/ 10 · Elevated
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