Within neighborhood
80
th percentile
High
Neighborhood · Ranked #15,451 of 84,120 nationally
Vinnin Square Eviction Risk: Elevated , Swampscott
Tract 25009202103 · Essex County, MA · pop 1,541 · neighborhood within 1.0 mi
With a score of 6.5/10, tract 25009202103 in the Vinnin Square area of Swampscott, MA reads elevated for landlord eviction risk. The severe-burden share is 88%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
Risk score
6.5
Elevated
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 10%
Stable renters 1%
Owners 89%
Tract context
Occupied units570
Renter share11.8%
SVI overall0.12
Poverty rate21.5%
Median income$121,250
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.Within parent city
100
th percentile
Very High
Within county
63
th percentile
Elevated
Within state
56
th percentile
Elevated
Geographic context
Risk heat across Swampscott and the region
Centroid at 42.4830, -70.9200 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vinnin Square scores 6.5
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendlyLocal political climate
Inherited from Swampscott
6.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
21.5% poverty · this tract
5.4
Supply constraint
$2,158 rent vs county FMR
6.0
Rent control risk
Inherited from Swampscott
6.7
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.7
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Swampscott
5.8
Housing court bias
Inherited from Swampscott
5.4
How Vinnin Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 12
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
- 45%Socioeconomic
- 15%Household composition
- 11%Racial/ethnic minority
- 5%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Vinnin Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
CDC PLACES 2023 · health & economic stress
Eviction-adjacent indicators
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
- 11.2%Housing insecurity
- 8.1%Utility-shutoff threat
- 12.8%Food insecurity
- 15.5%SNAP enrollment
- 8.0%Transit barriers
- 4.3%No health insurance
- 17.3%Frequent mental distress
- 27.2%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vinnin Square
88% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, far above the Essex County average of 50.7%. The dominant input is court filing pressure at 7.6/10.
The poverty rate is 22%, which in this model reads as reduced rent-recovery odds after a judgment. Adults with no health insurance runs 4.3% against 11.3% nationally. That is riskier than roughly 82% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.
At 12% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out. On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 2.1/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here.
Of its three components the housing type and transport measure is the least pressured. It tracks the Essex County average of 6.0 closely.
Average gross rent is $2,158, close to the Swampscott average. Annual rent works out to 21% of average household income of $121,250.
Tract-level figures come from the ACS 5-year release and are rebuilt whenever that, the court-record feed, or the statutory ledger behind the score changes.
Frequently asked
About tract 25009202103
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25009202103?
Census tract 25009202103 in the Vinnin Square neighborhood scores 6.5/10 (Elevated tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25009202103?
Median gross rent is $2,158/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 88% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25009202103?
21.5% of residents in tract 25009202103 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 1,541.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25009202103?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 12th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 45th, household 15th, minority 11th, housing 5th.
Q5
Is tract 25009202103 considered part of Vinnin Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25009202103 fall within Vinnin Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.0 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 25009202103 struggle to pay rent?
About 11.2% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 8.1% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 25009202103 compare to Swampscott overall?
Tract 25009202103 scores 6.5/10, higher than the parent city of Swampscott at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Swampscott; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Swampscott
Top eight tracts in Swampscott ranked by composite eviction-risk score.
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