Neighborhood · Ranked #67,219 of 84,120 nationally
Vinnin Square Eviction Risk: Lower , Swampscott
Tract 25009203100 ·
Essex County, MA · pop 7,116 · neighborhood within 1.4 mi
25009203100 is a census tract in the Vinnin Square area of Marblehead, MA. It scores 3/10 for landlords. Against the Essex County average of 6.0, this tract reads safer for landlords by 3.0 points.
Risk score
3
Lower
Confidence 100% · 1–10 scale
Household mix · 100 hh
Burdened renters 2%Stable renters 4%Owners 94%
Tract context
Occupied units2,535
Renter share6.2%
SVI overall0.06
Poverty rate2.5%
Median income$221,125
Percentile rank
Higher percentile = riskier than more peers.
Within neighborhood
0th percentile
#6 of 6 tracts In Vinnin Square
Very Low
Within parent city
0th percentile
#4 of 4 tracts In Swampscott
Very Low
Within county
1th percentile
#171 of 173 tracts In Essex County
Very Low
Within state
2th percentile
#1,581 of 1,613 tracts In Massachusetts
Very Low
Geographic context
Risk heat across Swampscott and the region
Centroid at 42.4871, -70.8724 · click any tract to drill in
Why Vinnin Square scores 3
9 axes · 1 = landlord-friendly
Local political climate
Inherited from Swampscott
6.8
Regional political climate
2024 county presidential margin
6.5
State political climate
Massachusetts legislature & governorship
6.2
Economic stress
2.5% poverty · this tract
1.0
Supply constraint
$2,541 rent vs county FMR
7.9
Rent control risk
Inherited from Swampscott
6.1
Eviction process difficulty
State law sets the calendar
5.9
Tenant organizing strength
Inherited from Swampscott
4.1
Housing court bias
Inherited from Swampscott
4.4
How Vinnin Square compares
Risk score vs. parent city, county, state.
CDC Social Vulnerability Index
SVI percentile: 6
CDC/ATSDR 2022. Higher = more vulnerable. National percentile across 84k tracts.
4%Socioeconomic
29%Household composition
9%Racial/ethnic minority
16%Housing & transportation
Comparable tracts
Census tracts with similar eviction risk
Within Vinnin Square. Closest by Eviction Risk Score.
Crude prevalence of conditions linked to housing loss. Source: CDC PLACES (cwsq-ngmh), 2023 model-based small-area estimates.
5.3%Housing insecurity
3.8%Utility-shutoff threat
5.3%Food insecurity
5.7%SNAP enrollment
3.9%Transit barriers
2.1%No health insurance
12.3%Frequent mental distress
21.1%Any disability
Analysis
What drives eviction risk in Vinnin Square
At $2,541 a month, rents run 44% over what the rest of Marblehead commands. The severe-burden share is 31%, and it is the single best predictor in this model of a filing that actually reaches judgment.
36% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, markedly below the Essex County average of 50.7%. Pulling hardest the other way is economic stress at 1/10. The voucher gap is 29.4%: households holding assistance that local rents will not absorb, which surfaces as churn rather than arrears.
Sitting well above the midpoint, supply constraint reads 7.9/10. On the high side, court filing pressure reads 7.6/10.
Adults with no health insurance runs 2.1% against 11.3% nationally. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 3.8% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two.
Nationally it ranks #67,219 of 84,120 for landlord eviction difficulty. At 6% renter-occupied this is predominantly owner territory, and comps have to be drawn from further out.
These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.
Frequently asked
About tract 25009203100
Q1
What is the eviction-risk score for census tract 25009203100?
Census tract 25009203100 in the Vinnin Square neighborhood scores 3/10 (Lower tier). The Eviction Risk Score blends state law, county filing rates, parent-city politics, and tract-specific rent-to-income ratios + poverty signals.
Q2
What is the average rent in tract 25009203100?
Median gross rent is $2,541/month (ACS 5-year 2023, table B25064). 36% of renter households are cost-burdened.
Q3
What is the poverty rate in tract 25009203100?
2.5% of residents in tract 25009203100 live below the federal poverty line (ACS B17001, 2023). Population: 7,116.
Q4
How socially vulnerable is tract 25009203100?
CDC Social Vulnerability Index ranks this tract in the 6th percentile nationally. Sub-themes: socioeconomic 4th, household 29th, minority 9th, housing 16th.
Q5
Is tract 25009203100 considered part of Vinnin Square?
Yes. Per Census Bureau 2020 Block Assignment Files, the plurality of blocks in tract 25009203100 fall within Vinnin Square (neighborhood centroid within 1.4 miles, OSM data).
Q6
What share of households in tract 25009203100 struggle to pay rent?
About 5.3% of adults in this tract reported housing insecurity (could not pay rent or mortgage in the past 12 months), per the CDC PLACES 2023 model-based small-area estimate. 3.8% also reported utility shutoff threats, a frequent precursor to eviction filings.
Q7
How does tract 25009203100 compare to Swampscott overall?
Tract 25009203100 scores 3/10, lower than the parent city of Swampscott at 5.9/10. City-scale signals (state law, local rent controls, court bias) are inherited from Swampscott; what makes this tract different are its tract-specific economic stress and supply-constraint sub-scores.
Sibling tracts
Highest-risk tracts in Swampscott
Top eight tracts in Swampscott ranked by composite eviction-risk score.