Downtown Lawrence Historic District Eviction Risk: High

The dominant input is tenant-organizing strength at 9.8/10. Severe burden reaches 33%. Those are renters paying half their income or more, and that is where non-payment filings originate. Set annual rent against average income of $28,910 and the ratio lands at 47%, above the conventional 30% ceiling.

96% of occupied units are rented, so comparables are plentiful and vacancy risk is low, but a mispriced renewal loses the tenant to a building nearby. Running cool, supply constraint reads 1/10. Housing insecurity runs 32.0% against 14.2% nationally.

Average gross rent is $1,143, 31% below the Lawrence average. 62% of renter households cross the 30%-of-income line, well above the Essex County average of 50.7%. Sitting well above the midpoint, rent-regulation exposure reads 8.2/10.

The poverty rate is 23%. Judgments in high-poverty tracts are collectible far less often than filing counts suggest. Inability to pay a utility bill runs 19.5% against 9.2% nationally. Utility arrears usually lead rent arrears by a month or two. That is riskier than roughly 95% of the 84,120 US census tracts in this model.

On the CDC Social Vulnerability Index the tract reads 9.7/10, which tracks how hard a shock lands on the households already here. Statewide the MA average is 6.2, so this tract runs 2.8 points hotter.

Of its three components the household composition measure is the most pressured.

These are ACS 5-year estimates; the score moves when the ACS, court-record, or statute inputs behind it move.